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Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) inflation rate is slowly drawing to a close

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Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) inflation rate is slowly drawing to a close

Bitcoin’s inflation rate is slowly drawing to a close. Some 85 percent of the 21 million bitcoins that are programmed to come into existence have been mined, leaving just 3.15 million coins left. But while the majority of the supply has been unlocked, the remaining 15 percent will slowly come into being over the next 100 years.

New bitcoin is minted every time a new block is created on the network, roughly every 10 minutes, increasing its supply over time. At present, 12.5 bitcoins are produced per block but this will be halved to 6.25 bitcoins in May 2020—in an event known as the halvening. This cut in mining rewards will keep occurring every four years, until just fractional amounts of bitcoin are created per block.

The bitcoin network is kept secure by its hashrate—the computing power expended to produce new blocks and gain the elusive rewards. Currently, the hashrate on the network is breaking new highs at 78 EH/s. However, when the rewards drop, there will be fewer incentives for miners to keep plugging away, unless the price of bitcoin rises enough to outweigh the decline. Instead, it’s expected that transaction fees will rise to replace the mining rewards.

The network is already moving this way. Transaction fees currently add up to half a million dollars per day and are averaging $1.50, with recent peaks at $6 per transaction. In fact, nearly $1 billion in transaction fees have been paid since the network launched. Proponents are saying that this will help to keep the network secure without introducing additional inflation while critics argue that the Bitcoin network is too expensive to be used for making daily payments.

The debate wages on.

Intermediate term: Prices are ranging.

The projected upper bound is: 12,298.53.

The projected lower bound is: 8,585.06.

The projected closing price is: 10,441.79.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 31 white candles and 19 black candles for a net of 12 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 89.7778. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 19 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 52.00. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 36 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 74. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed down -12.000 at 10,399.000. Volume was 74% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 34% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
10,406.50010,462.48010,295.80010,399.000 23,949

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 9,821.60 10,540.61 6,480.90
Volatility: 55 106 77
Volume: 76,576 92,164 79,528

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX BTC= is currently 60.5% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 17 periods.

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