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Tuesday, November 30, 2021

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) immediate outlook remains neutral

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) immediate outlook remains neutral

Bitcoin retreated after crossing into five figures early on Monday, establishing the psychological level of $10,000 as the resistance to beat for the bulls.

After briefly touching $10,008 at 01:30 UTC, according to CoinDesk’s Bitcoin Price Index, the cryptocurrency had fallen back to $9,620 by 03:00.

Bitcoin (BTC) has now failed twice in the last 24 hours to find takers above $10,000. Another attempt during Sunday’s early U.S. trading hours also saw prices print a high just above $10,000 only to plunge quickly to $9,850.

The failures have poured cold water over the optimism generated by the move higher seen over the weekend. Bitcoin remained resilient around $9,650 on Friday, despite a bearish turn by the money flow index, and rose to five figures on Sunday.

Importantly, with the rejection at $10,000, bitcoin has logged another bearish lower high on the technical charts – one of a succession since the recent rally stalled at $10,500 on Feb. 13.

Invalidation of the lower highs setup is needed to revive the immediate bullish case. As a result, the high around $10,000 observed during Monday’s Asia hours is the level to beat for the bulls.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $9,750 on Bitstamp. Meanwhile, its global average price as calculated by the Bitcoin Price Index is $9,765, down 1.38 percent over 24 hours.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

The projected upper bound is: 10,321.06.

The projected lower bound is: 8,892.73.

The projected closing price is: 9,606.90.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 2 white candles and 8 black candles for a net of 6 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 6 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 46.6199. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 14 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 49.54. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -84. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed down -28.560 at 9,566.980. Volume was 72% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 27% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
9,614.6009,674.8009,435.7209,566.980 38,732
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 9,713.68 9,186.16 8,792.86
Volatility: 51 50 56
Volume: 282,551 178,673 107,006

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX BTC= is currently 8.8% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 4 periods.

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