Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) hits speed bump, reaches lowest level in 6 months
It wasn’t long ago that bitcoin looked like it was making a comeback. Recently, however,it has hit a speed bump.
Bitcoin’s price came tumbling down Monday as it dropped to $6,558 at 1 a.m. EST, its lowest level in six months. (Since bitcoin is continuously traded, there is no closing price for it.)
The notoriously volatile cryptocurrency rebounded quickly, however, and reached $7,100 a few hours later on Monday. That’s still better than when it traded below $4,000 at the beginning of the year. But since its peak on July 9, bitcoin prices have dropped more than 45%.
Only a few weeks ago, bitcoin experienced a nice rally, with prices more than doubling to a 2019 high of around $8,500.
One thing that may have added to investor confidence is that China appears to be taking more steps to embrace bitcoin. Chinese President Xi Jinping recently made bullish comments about the technology that acts as a ledger for bitcoin transactions, calling blockchain an “important breakthrough.”
“China has been the catalyst for the major moves and swings in the bitcoin,” said Mohamed Zidan, chief market strategist for ThinkMarkets in Dubai. “The last rally was because Chinese president declared his plans about increasing the investment in blockchain technology and digital Yuan.”
Bitcoin’s recent decline came after the People’s Bank of China said it would tackle the growing number of illegal cases involving virtual currencies, Zidan said.
“It was a signal for crypto investors that Chinese future for blockchain investments and digital currency would not include cryptocurrencies like bitcoin,” he said.
But Lennon Sweeting, director of institutional trading with Coinsquare Capital Markets, said Monday’s drop is likely just a sign of the bitcoin stabilizing.
“President Xi’s comments on blockchain technology and its importance for China sparked a pretty significant rally,” said Lennon Sweeting, director of institutional trading with Coinsquare Capital Markets. “And I think really what we’ve seen here is just a small correction on the back of those headlines.”
Facebook and its Libra cryptocurrency have faced skepticism from lawmakers, and there’s concern that increased government scrutiny for Libra could dent plans not only for Facebook but for other cryptos as well.
But it appears that bitcoin fans are not worried. The mere fact that Facebook has shown such interest in cryptocurrencies is being viewed as validation for bitcoin and other forms of digital payments.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 8,315.73.
The projected upper bound is: 8,409.71.
The projected lower bound is: 6,708.11.
The projected closing price is: 7,558.91.
A big white candle occurred. This is generally considered bullish, as prices closed significantly higher than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “low,” it may be the first sign of a bottom. If it occurs when prices are rebounding off of a support area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or retracement level), the long white candle adds credibility to the support. Similarly, if the candle appears during a breakout above a resistance area, the long white candle adds credibility to the breakout.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 17 white candles and 33 black candles for a net of 16 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 61.1131. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 28 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 39.55. This is not a topping or bottoming area. However, the RSI just crossed above 30 from a bottoming formation. This is a bullish sign. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -56. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 19 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX BTC= closed up 461.890 at 7,570.600. Volume was 15% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 35% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 7,554.71 8,443.46 9,401.09
Volatility: 67 66 78
Volume: 77,422 77,939 86,439
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX BTC= is currently 19.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of BTC= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 13 periods.
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