Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Has At Least a 50% Chance of Succeeding
Casares, who has been outspoken about his support for Bitcoin and the crypto markets in the past, shared his thoughts on where he sees the nascent technology heading next in a recent post on the Kana and Katana blog, laying out a strong case for why most portfolios should allocate up to 1% of their holdings to Bitcoin.
In this post, he points to growing adoption, a constant influx of new investors, and a significant surge in transaction volume since its inception as just a few reasons why the digital asset has at least a 50% chance of succeeding.
“After 10 years of working well without interruption, with more than 60 million holders, adding more than 1 million new holders per month and moving more than $1 billion per day worldwide, it has a good chance of succeeding. In my (subjective) opinion those chances of succeeding are at least 50%,” he explained.
Despite this, Casares also explained that despite the strong fundamentals surrounding Bitcoin, he does believe that the chances of it failing are at least 20%.
If Bitcoin Succeeds, Its Value May Surge to As High as $1 Million
Although he remains clear in his assessment that Bitcoin is still in an experimental phase, and as such there remains significant risk in investing in it, Casares also notes that if the cryptocurrency does succeed and reaches its full potential, its value may surge, bringing the price of each BTC to over $1 million within the next decade.
“In my (subjective) opinion those chances of succeeding are at least 50%. If Bitcoin does succeed, 1 Bitcoin may be worth more than $1 million in 7 to 10 years,” he noted.
Considering this analysis and the massive potential Bitcoin has of garnering widespread adoption and surging in value, embattled investors may take some solace in the strong possibility that BTC will one day surpass its all-time-highs.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 4,362.46.
The projected upper bound is: 5,649.80.
The projected lower bound is: 4,708.19.
The projected closing price is: 5,179.00.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 30 white candles and 20 black candles for a net of 10 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 38.8591. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 65.20. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 37. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX BTC= closed up 44.530 at 5,153.170. Volume was 80% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 181% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 5,141.78 4,267.78 4,538.02
Volatility: 37 67 69
Volume: 80,297 69,059 73,532
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX BTC= is currently 13.6% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 16 periods.
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