Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Halving is 6 Sleeps Away
- Bitcoin halving search interest on Google has reached a fever pitch.
- On-chain activity is also on the rise as retail and institutional interest spikes.
- BTC bulls are hoping that history repeats itself and the price skyrockets.
It’s been left for dead more than once, written off as nothing but a bubble and denounced as rat poison by one of the world’s most famous investors. Yet Bitcoin is once again staging a comeback reminiscent of the token’s glory days, with evangelists pegging their hopes on a technical event as the new catalyst.
Bitcoin halving is now four times the level seen before the 2016 halving.
Shayne Heffernan Trade Idea
“To invest in Bitcoin it is necessary to believe the system has integrity in the sense that the supply is truly limited. The digital token should be a source of diversification precisely because of its truly decentralized nature.” Shayne Heffernan PhD in Economics
Why This Matters
We believe the halving will affect bitcoin’s price, but a number of question marks remain. As the bitcoin halving countdown winds down, the knee-jerk expectation would be for price to go up, per the typical supply/demand dynamic.
But the coming halving is no big secret; it’s baked into the code. Many investors believe the adjustment is already factored into the current price. In fact, if the adjustment is indeed factored in, but enough investors expect a surge that doesn’t materialize, it could even lead to a fall in the price of bitcoin.
The big price spikes associated with bitcoin—which took it to a record near $20,000 in 2017 and, after a slump, saw it surge again to more than $13,000 in 2019—haven’t occurred at the same time as the previous two halvings. But there aren’t many data points to compare.
There’s a price argument to be made both ways, the exact price after the halving will depend on macroeconomic events. Bitcoin has been particularly volatile as the COVID-19 pandemic essentially ground commercial activity to a halt throughout much of the world.
“From an institutional investor point of view, we’re excited about the impact of the halving in generating increased awareness and interest for education. Based on search results, social volumes, sentiment, and so on, we’re seeing that the upcoming halving could serve as another catalyst in expanding the adoption of digital assets by mainstream investors.”
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 8,017.46.
The projected upper bound is: 10,027.90.
The projected lower bound is: 8,224.98.
The projected closing price is: 9,126.44.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 65.4287. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 74.32. This is where it usually tops. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 48 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 77. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 20 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX BTC= closed up 97.290 at 9,054.640. Volume was 69% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 33% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 8,939.000 9,077.900 8,906.540 9,054.640 145,301
Technical Outlook Short Term: Overbought Intermediate Term: Bullish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 8,651.47 7,160.94 8,007.50 Volatility: 83 84 84 Volume: 385,119 545,470 261,394
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX BTC= is currently 13.1% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into BTC= (mildly bullish).
Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 34 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that BTC= is currently in an overbought condition. The security price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.
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