Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) fresh upward move above the $3,900 and $4,000

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) fresh upward move above the $3,900 and $4,000

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) fresh upward move above the $3,900 and $4,000

Yesterday, we saw a major downside correction in bitcoin price below the $4,000 support against the US Dollar. The BTC/USD pair even declined below the $3,800 support before buyers appeared near the $3,680 level. A low was formed at $3,684 and later the price started a fresh upward move. The price moved above the $3,750 resistance to start a fresh upward move.

It even broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $4,249 high to $3,684 low. Moreover, there was a break above a short term declining channel with resistance at $3,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The pair is now trading nicely above the $3,800 level, with an immediate resistance near the 100 hourly simple moving average and $3,950. The next resistance is $4,000 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $4,249 high to $3,684 low. Therefore, if the price corrects further higher, it could find resistance near the $3,950 and $4,000 resistances.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

The projected upper bound is: 4,312.54.

The projected lower bound is: 3,005.98.

The projected closing price is: 3,659.26.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 19 white candles and 31 black candles for a net of 12 black candles.

A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 19.3392. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 45.78. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 19. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 27 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed down -60.110 at 3,715.000. Volume was 60% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 0% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
3,775.1603,962.0003,691.0303,715.000 30,578

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 3,849.50 4,274.96 6,055.58
Volatility: 76 96 66
Volume: 97,259 91,545 83,789

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX BTC= is currently 38.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 7 periods.

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