Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) forming a short term base near $3,120

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) forming a short term base near $3,120

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) forming a short term base near $3,120

This past week, bitcoin price remained in a slow and steady downtrend from the $3,640 high against the US Dollar. The BTC/USD pair traded lower and broke the $3,400 and $3,320 support levels. The decline gained pace and the price traded to a new yearly low at $3,126. Later, it consolidated above $3,126 for a few sessions before correcting higher. It moved above the $3,200 resistance, but it is well below the 100 simple moving average (4-hours).

During the rise, it almost broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last slide from the $3,642 high to $3,126 low. Moreover, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at $3,220 on the 4-hours chart of the BTC/USD pair. However, it seems like buyers are struggling to gain paceabove the $3,250 level. The first hurdle for buyers is near the $3,320 level (the previous support). The next is $3,380 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the last slide from the $3,642 high to $3,126 low. A successful break above $3,380 and the $3,400 is needed for buyers to gain bullish momentum.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 4,624.84.

The projected upper bound is: 3,738.07.

The projected lower bound is: 2,527.56.

The projected closing price is: 3,132.81.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 20 white candles and 30 black candles for a net of 10 black candles.

A doji star occurred (where a doji gaps above or below the previous candle). This often signals a reversal with confirmation occurring on the next bar.

A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 16.3488. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 29.77. This is where it usually bottoms. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -85. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 17 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed down -1.230 at 3,196.870. Volume was 57% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 24% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
3,196.0003,351.0003,175.7003,196.870 31,659

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 3,304.19 4,770.60 6,237.61
Volatility: 73 85 65
Volume: 90,855 83,127 81,878

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX BTC= is currently 48.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 34 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that BTC= is currently in an oversold condition.

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