Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) fighting to hold $8,400 during crucial market cycle
BITCOIN is currently gripped in a tight channel of resistance as opposing market forces attempt to move it away from recent stability. The volatility which normally defines cryptocurrency had been largely ever-present as BTC bounced between $6,800 and $8,600 during recent months before a curious flatline held it at a steady average of $8,640 over the past week.
However, some heavy downward pressure this morning has seen bitcoin’s price move by some $200 as bearish traders attempt to reclaim what was slowly building into a potential bull market. This tension comes at a crucial point in the current market cycle as volume indicators suggest that investment in crypto is in an accumulative phase – essentially, traders appear to be buying in during what they anticipate to be the bottom price before the much-anticipated “halving” in May.
A halving occurs roughly every four years and acts as a correction to ensure the availability of bitcoins remains steady until the maximum supply of 21 million has been reached.
The term “halving” simply means miners will receive 50 percent fewer rewards for verifying transactions.
It is widely believed that this next halving will have a dramatic effect on the price of bitcoin.
This would naturally explain why it is likely that bitcoin is entering an accumulative phase – as we edge closer to the halving, more people are keen to get their chips down now on what they expect to be the lowest value before what some are certain will be a price explosion.
There is no crystal ball to suggest that is exactly what will happen.
After all, previous halving events have had mixed responses.
Therefore, the accumulation in the BTC market is largely driven by people gambling on a hunch.
However, the sting in the tail here may yet belong on a bear.
As the bulls attempt to build volume and maintain the price above $8,400 it could be that the historically-stronger and more influential bears want to drive the price down several times in the run up to the halving.
After all, if the widely-held belief is resting on a dramatic price rise in May, then it could be prudent to create a number of lows to allow further opportunities for “buy-in” that would also potentially deliver greater profit margins.
It is this butting of heads between the two that is currently nudging the price down towards the $8,400 line of resistance – a figure that has often been the calling point on several journeys north.
And, looking at the amount of volume coming into the market, that’s precisely where many people believe this train is heading.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 8,151.94.
The projected upper bound is: 8,795.42.
The projected lower bound is: 7,659.66.
The projected closing price is: 8,227.54.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 29 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 8 white candles.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 16.8351. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 51.11. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -68. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX BTC= closed down -60.010 at 8,211.030. Volume was 69% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 8% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 8,653.60 7,660.07 8,956.81
Volatility: 34 48 62
Volume: 101,308 94,934 86,619
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX BTC= is currently 8.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into BTC= (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 19 periods. our momentum oscillator has set a new 14-period low while the security price has not. This is a bearish divergence.
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