Home Crypto Bitcoin Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) facing major crossroad as sell-off proves relentless

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) facing major crossroad as sell-off proves relentless

03 Feb 2014, Los Angeles, California, USA --- Bitcoin is a digital peer to peer decentralized crypto-currency. Bitcoin is now accepted as a form of payment for many businesses and private transactions of goods and services. --- Image by © Ted Soqui/Corbis

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) facing major crossroad as sell-off proves relentless

Bitcoin is nearing a critical juncture as its recent sell-off shows few signs of abating.

The largest digital token is nearing a crucial inflection point as its price inches closer to the lower band limit of the Trading Envelope Indicator. The gauge smooths moving averages to map out higher and lower limits, with a break below the lower band potentially preceding a retreat similar to the one seen on September 24, when the coin fell 12 per cent in one day.

A bounce off the lower limit, on the other hand, could signal support at that level and, possibly, a rally similar to the one seen on October 25, when bitcoin posted a 15 per cent gain.

Whichever way it moves, Bitcoin is nearly certain to see one thing: more trading as its price ebbs closer to the lower level limit, the indicator suggests.

Crypto faithfuls got another dose of bad news after US authorities arrested a member of the Ethereum Foundation for violating international sanctions after he travelled to North Korea to give a cryptocurrency talk.

Bitcoin fell as much as 7 per cent on Monday to trade around $US7,166. The Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index, which tracks some of the largest digital assets, lost as much as 5.8 per cent.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 8,265.97.

The projected upper bound is: 8,110.37.

The projected lower bound is: 6,455.93.

The projected closing price is: 7,283.15.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 17 white candles and 33 black candles for a net of 16 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 38.4955. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 36.24. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -25. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed down -14.460 at 7,303.790. Volume was 67% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 2% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
7,318.9807,450.7007,185.8107,303.790 26,673
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 7,379.90 8,330.61 9,397.53
Volatility: 48 65 76
Volume: 88,552 78,098 85,821

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX BTC= is currently 22.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of BTC= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 19 periods.

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