Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Faces Further Losses After Rejection Near $11K
Bitcoin is losing altitude after rejection near the psychological hurdle of $11,000 earlier today, and may fall below $10,000 in the next 24 hours.
The leading cryptocurrency by market value rose to a high of $10,956 at 00:03 UTC today on Bitstamp, extending its recovery from the Aug. 15 low of $9,467.
The rise to $11,000 was expected, as the cryptocurrency’s hourly chart was reporting a high-volume ascending channel breakout or a bullish continuation pattern yesterday.
The momentum, however, soon petered out just short of $11,000 and prices fell back below $10,800 by 03:30 UTC. Another wave of selling hit the markets in the European morning session, pushing BTC lower to $10,550 in the 75 minutes to 09:00 UTC.
As of writing, BTC is changing hands at $10,690 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.25 percent loss on a 24-hour basis. Prices are still up more than $1,000 from the low of $9,467 seen on Aug. 15.
Investors have associated the recent recovery with Friday’s announcement by the Bakkt exchange that it will be launching physically-settled bitcoin futures on Sept. 23, with some believing the news marks a long-term bullish development for bitcoin.
In the short-term, however, there is a strong probability that BTC will fall back below $10,000, as the recovery from recent lows has taken the shape of a bearish reversal pattern.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
The projected upper bound is: 11,501.44.
The projected lower bound is: 8,740.13.
The projected closing price is: 10,120.79.
A big black candle occurred. This is bearish, as prices closed significantly lower than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “high,” it may be the first sign of a top. If it occurs when prices are confronting an overhead resistance area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or price resistance level), the long black candle adds credibility to the resistance. Similarly, if the candle appears as prices break below a support area, the long black candle confirms the failure of the support area.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 6 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 65.0432. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 43.39. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 55 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -59. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX BTC= closed down -601.880 at 10,132.120. Volume was 62% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 18% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 10,518.02 10,758.01 7,188.35
Volatility: 66 81 79
Volume: 82,728 90,301 81,487
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX BTC= is currently 41.0% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 16 periods.
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