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Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Explained. Past, Present and Future

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Explained. Past, Present and Future

Bitcoin is 10 years old. And, after all, is in good health. During the past decade, historical ups followed by catastrophic downs and viceversa took the stage. Thousands of articles about its mysterious founder(s), its evolution, real and clearly unreal price predictions, and its near future death, have been published.

A period also marked by security issues, frauds and country bans, which have often put it a severe risk of survival.

Anyways, at the very beginning, investors failed to give attention to the new digital currency (valued at $0.08 in 2010). They did not know Bitcoin, which, by the end of 2019, would have increased its value by an unbelievable 62.500%, becoming the most-profitable investment of the decade, a period which saw companies like Facebook, Twilio, Airbnb, Twitter, Deliveroo, and many others to launch and thrive until our days.

For this reason, today, we can affirm that Bitcoin is in good shape, at least in terms of current valuation.

Launched in early 2009 by mysterious Satoshi Nakamoto, who has kept his/their identity secret since releasing Bitcoin’s original blueprint on 31 October 2008, Bitcoin was traded in March 2010 for the first time on BitcoinMarket, the first formal bitcoin exchange.

In the following years, the cryptocurrency went mainstream with some relevant use coming from online gaming sites. But in the meantime, competitors emerged. Other cryptocurrencies such as Ripple and Ethereum were launched along with unlikely altcoins while, in a more advanced stage, Bitcoin ATMs started proliferating globally.

After years of consistent growth, in 2017 Bitcoin broke records reaching $19,783.06 by mid-December, which remains the highest-ever value, even triggered by the ICO bubble, but soon after the value dropped, crashing hard to under $3,300 by the end of 2018. 2019 was more positive. The cryprocurrency reached its highest price in more than a year in May 2019, rising to £10,908.18, dropping a little in June 2019 and fluctuating around this level ever since.

Nobody can predict the future of Bitcoin. Several factors can affect its price and value. The next reduction of block reward to miners, from 12.5 bitcoins for each new block of transactions to 6.25 bitcoins, can influence it. Increased competition from the Facebook’s Libra, next to be launched, or the continued growth of Ethereum can add pressure.

Beyond technological and security challenges, we think that the value of Bitcoin, overall, will mainly depend on the use people will do of it. A recent research from Chainalysis showed that only 1.3% of the economic transactions in the first four months of 2019 came from merchants. Given this, Bitcoin economic activity continues to be dominated by exchange trading.

In our opinion, in order to finally flourish, more than being considered as “digital gold”, Bitcoin needs to attract appeal as a viable electronic alternative to money instead of leaning on a culture of “hodlers”, who prefer accumulating rather than spending.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 8,004.52.

The projected upper bound is: 9,354.75.

The projected lower bound is: 8,253.17.

The projected closing price is: 8,803.96.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 6 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 86.2357. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 71.89. This is where it usually tops. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 30 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 122.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 29 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed up 101.030 at 8,780.230. Volume was 75% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 51% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
8,685.7508,810.7208,546.3308,780.230 21,935
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 8,312.80 7,491.23 9,055.46
Volatility: 49 47 63
Volume: 109,542 94,485 86,466

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX BTC= is currently 3.0% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into BTC= (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 12 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that BTC= is currently in an overbought condition.

HEFFXhttp://www.heffx.com
HEFFX has become one of Asia’s leading financial services companies with interests in Publishing, Private Equity, Capital Markets, Mining, Retail, Transport and Agriculture that span every continent of the world. Our clearing partners have unprecedented experience in Equities, Options, Forex and Commodities brokering, banking, physical metals dealing, floor brokering and trading.

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