Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Drops Below $4,000 as Key Resistance Level Holds

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Drops Below $4,000 as Key Resistance Level Holds

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Drops Below $4,000 as Key Resistance Level Holds

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading down 1.5% at its current price of $3,960 and just recently dropped below its key support level that had been previously established at approximately $4,000.

Over the past week, Bitcoin has been coiling tightly within approximately $4,000 and $4,050 before dropping today. Despite today’s drop being relatively small, the recent lack of volatility will likely be fleeting, as BTC has historically made some of its largest price swings after extended periods of sideways trading.

Tim Kelly, the founder and CEO of cryptocurrency trading platform BitOoda, recently spoke to MarketWatch about where he sees the markets heading next, and importantly noted that he believes BTC will “probe” its previously established resistance level at $4,200.

“BTC’s feel at the very moment is that it wants to probe the recent highs and see how strong the resistance is sitting at the $4,200 level… Unless large buying volumes come into the market, probing is all we shall see at that resistance level. We believe it will take a serious force of buying to take those levels out to the upside,” he explained.

$4,200 was established as a key resistance level in late-February when BTC surged from roughly $3,600 to highs of $4,200, before swiftly spiraling downwards to $3,800.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 3,879.20.

The projected upper bound is: 4,226.21.

The projected lower bound is: 3,589.07.

The projected closing price is: 3,907.64.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 29.1902. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 25 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 48.75. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 30 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -82. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed up 11.470 at 3,898.000. Volume was 61% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 46% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
3,890.7403,984.2003,877.0003,898.000 26,689

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 3,990.29 3,824.16 4,703.56
Volatility: 46 53 64
Volume: 59,859 65,058 73,633

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX BTC= is currently 17.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 1 periods.

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