Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Downside Vulnerability

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Downside Vulnerability

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Downside Vulnerability

The BTC/USD index since the rebound is targeting the descending trendline forming in the near-term scenario while keeping the 100 and 200-hour moving average curves in sight as the potential upside targets. The momentum indicator RSI has recovered as expected and is now trending inside a neutral sentiment area. The Stochastic Oscillator, meanwhile, has entered the buying territory, looking to move further up inside the overbought territory before another pullback.

The market sentiment overall remains bearish. The upside could be a pennant formation scenario which could yield another bearish pole.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 6,638.74.

The projected upper bound is: 6,690.81.

The projected lower bound is: 6,005.28.

The projected closing price is: 6,348.05.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 42.4519. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 39 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 46.68. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 85 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -59. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed up 19.930 at 6,350.330. Volume was 67% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 75% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
6,333.5706,454.7006,253.2006,350.330 24,699

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 6,359.74 6,468.81 7,129.75
Volatility: 20 34 54
Volume: 52,898 64,220 76,442

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX BTC= is currently 10.9% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 15 periods.

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