Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) down 80% since last December

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) down 80% since last December

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) down 80% since last December

Fundamentals are extremely bullish and with regulators amending/formulating new laws, it’s clear that Bitcoin is here to stay. That could explain the increasing level of use, institutional interest and more funds for infrastructure development.

Thing is, poor policies can cause irreparable damage for an economy. Unfortunately, then ordinary citizens bore the full brunt but not anymore. Crypto and specifically Bitcoin continue to be a safe haven for many. Drawing from what’s happening in Venezuela and how citizens are shifting their value to a global coin that is immune to poor economic policies, sanctions or hyper-inflation, it’s a new dawn that mesh well with Bitcoin’s objectives.

Generally speaking there has been a spike of Bitcoin activities. Considering how cheap it is to pseudonymously move large sums, there is a lot to benefit in a space that is still evolving as infrastructure is being built to support the next wave of disruption.

Bitcoin is adoption is rising that year-to-date, close to $2 trillion dollars worth were moved over the platform. That’s a massive 61 percent increase from 2017 but a slowdown from 2016 when use rose by 96 percent. What’s interesting is that all this is printing at a time when the market is experiencing one of the longest draw-down in the coin’s history. This not only shows that the market is maturing but the depth and increasing adoption levels hints of acceptance across the board.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 5,203.09.

The projected upper bound is: 4,402.55.

The projected lower bound is: 3,220.56.

The projected closing price is: 3,811.56.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 6 black candles.

A doji star occurred (where a doji gaps above or below the previous candle). This often signals a reversal with confirmation occurring on the next bar.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 32.2937. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 30.65. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -77. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed down -17.740 at 3,862.080. Volume was 55% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 109% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
3,870.5503,947.8003,727.5803,862.080 32,681

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 3,946.07 5,567.57 6,520.09
Volatility: 99 78 63
Volume: 95,590 69,498 79,723

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX BTC= is currently 40.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 21 periods.

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