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Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) currently consolidating losses

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Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) currently consolidating losses

This past week, there was a strong decline in BTC below the $10,000 support area against the US Dollar. The BTC/USD pair broke many supports near $9,500 and $9,000 to enter a bearish zone. Moreover, there was a close below $9,000 and the 100 simple moving average (4-hours). Finally, the price broke the $8,000 support and traded to a new monthly low near $7,742.

Recently, it started an upside correction above $8,000. Moreover, there was a break above the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $8,677 high to $7,742 low. However, the upward move was capped by the $8,450 level. It seems like the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $8,677 high to $7,742 low rejected the recovery.

Moreover, there is a declining channel forming with resistance near $8,350 on the 4-hours chart of the BTC/USD pair. If there is an upside break above $8,350 and $8,450, the price could recover further. The main resistance on the upside is near the $8,750 level. A successful close above $8,750 and a follow through above $9,000 is needed for a strong recovery in bitcoin in the near term.

On the downside, an initial support is near the $7,900 and $7,850 levels. If there is a downside break below the $7,850 support, the price could break the last swing low and continue lower. The main target for the bears could be $7,500. If there are more downsides, the price may perhaps test the $7,200 level.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 9,515.72.

The projected upper bound is: 8,832.74.

The projected lower bound is: 7,043.68.

The projected closing price is: 7,938.21.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 2 white candles and 8 black candles for a net of 6 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.

A doji star occurred (where a doji gaps above or below the previous candle). This often signals a reversal with confirmation occurring on the next bar.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 17.2961. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 18 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 20.92. This is where it usually bottoms. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 94 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -97. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed down -50.660 at 8,004.830. Volume was 88% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 46% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
7,995.5508,046.4007,903.1908,004.830 9,879
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 8,916.28 10,020.38 8,379.42
Volatility: 73 58 80
Volume: 69,656 79,488 83,694

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX BTC= is currently 4.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 5 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that BTC= is currently in an oversold condition.

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