Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Could Still See A “Black Swan” Event

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Could Still See A “Black Swan” Event

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Could Still See A “Black Swan” Event

In the eyes of analysts across the board, Bitcoin (BTC) decidedly bottomed at $3,150. They cite the fact that at $3,150, BTC was down 85% from its all-time highs, which is where the crypto asset has bottomed in previous cycles, coupled with the idea that industry fundamentals are better than ever.

And so far, this call has been vindicated, as BTC now sits at a casual $5,300. However, some pundits fear that a so-called “black swan” event could still strike this market, forcing Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to enter a freefall.

If you’re placing bets on where the bitcoin price is going next, the data is overwhelmingly in favor of a bull market. Crypto analyst Shayne Heffernan attaches a whopping 95% or higher probability that the worst is over for BTC.

Bitcoin bottomed out at $3,150 at year-end 2018 and unless hell freezes over, it won’t hunt new lows. The BTC price is currently hovering at $5,351.

“I’m swimming in data and you kind of get an intuition about things. I’d say a one-in-20 to one-in-40 chance that this floor falls through. So that’s 95%-97.5% that the bottom is in. I’d consider if we drop below $4,300, they [bears] would be very lucky,” said Shayne Heffernan.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

The projected upper bound is: 5,810.71.

The projected lower bound is: 4,860.26.

The projected closing price is: 5,335.48.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 30 white candles and 20 black candles for a net of 10 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 64.8897. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 65.72. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 69. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed up 29.450 at 5,307.200. Volume was 76% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 32% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
5,263.5005,341.9005,225.5905,307.200 16,757

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 5,209.38 4,467.40 4,492.03
Volatility: 24 67 69
Volume: 65,961 70,098 73,489

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX BTC= is currently 18.1% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 23 periods.

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