Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Could Rally To $6,000 by Dec

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Could Rally To $6,000 by Dec

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Could Rally To $6,000 by Dec

After weeks–and even months– of lower lows that have seen Bitcoin drop from $20,000 to just over $3,500, hints are beginning to emerge of a possible recovery. So far, BTC/USD is down five percent in the last week—revealing  the much needed correction as it was down 20 percent or so early this week—and a massive 13 percent in the last day.  With this, statistics hint of a $350 addition which by all counts is miniscule when compared to the $1,500 drops from $6,000 or so registered in the last two weeks or so.

As it is, conservatives should take a cautious stand and not jump in until after we see strong convincing close above $5,000. When that prints then there shall be a double bar bull reversal pattern. Then again, it would be ideal if this move is accompanied by high trading volumes exceeding those of last week at 434k.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 5,269.81.

The projected upper bound is: 4,689.82.

The projected lower bound is: 3,517.38.

The projected closing price is: 4,103.60.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

A bearish harami occurred (where the current small black body is contained within an unusually large white body). During an uptrend this pattern implies an end to the rally as the bulls appear to have exhausted themselves.

During a downtrend (which appears to be the case with FOREX BTC=) the bearish harami pattern is bullish as the bulls appear to be gaining strength as the bears weaken.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 59.4994. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 30.86. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -42. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 16 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed down -81.000 at 4,151.290. Volume was 45% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 246% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
4,215.0804,250.0004,078.9404,151.290 39,539

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 4,079.24 5,800.03 6,630.44
Volatility: 117 75 62
Volume: 92,278 66,220 78,971

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX BTC= is currently 37.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 16 periods.

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