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Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) could experience more pain with a possible drop below the $10,000 level


Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) could experience more pain with a possible drop below the $10,000 level

Bitcoin’s 10 percent price surge on July 18 has put an end to its longest losing streak in 2019.

However, the bulls have to remain cautiously optimistic given that it is highly likely that they will once again face the four-digit reality.

A painful month

After selling pressure came to a head at $13,000, the price of Bitcoin started tanking and eventually ended up on the verge of falling below the $9,000 level.

This resulted in the ugliest losing streak on Bitcoin’s three-day chart since December. Back then, the crypto king experienced yet another correction after bottoming out at $3,100.

Hold your horses

The much-coveted green candle that broke Bitcoin’s losing streak might be an indicator that the BTC price is gearing up to retest this year’s high, but Godbole warns that the bulls have one more challenge ahead of them.

In order to confirm the continuation of the “golden” bull run that commenced on Apr. 2, Bitcoin has to secure a break in the lower highs cycle by printing a four-hour close above $11,080. That would open the door to $12,000.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

The projected upper bound is: 12,181.33.

The projected lower bound is: 8,451.87.

The projected closing price is: 10,316.60.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 31 white candles and 19 black candles for a net of 12 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 57.3926. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 47.02. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 26 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -53. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 22 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed down -16.410 at 10,281.490. Volume was 92% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 14% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
10,324.50010,384.81010,187.70010,281.490 7,438

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 10,388.08 10,154.43 6,180.41
Volatility: 99 109 78
Volume: 88,496 91,362 79,383

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX BTC= is currently 66.4% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 7 periods.

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