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Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) corrective bounce may be seen before an extended sell-off to $7,500-$7,070


Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) corrective bounce may be seen before an extended sell-off to $7,500-$7,070

Bitcoin (BTC) is again flashing red, having hit a 3.5-month low earlier today and is on track to post the first quarterly loss of 2019.

The top cryptocurrency by market capitalization fell to $7,715 at 04:50 UTC today – a level last  seen on June 11 – and is currently changing hands at $7,980 on Bitstamp, representing 2 percent losses on a 24-hour basis.

More importantly, BTC is currently down more than 25 percent from July 1’s opening price of $10,759. This is the first quarterly loss since the final three months of 2018.

The long-term technical charts had turned bullish following the second quarter’s triple digit price rise and many observers were convinced that BTC may see a brief correction in the third quarter before challenging record highs near $20,000 in the final thee months of 2019.

The cryptocurrency did see a pullback to $9,100 in mid-July, having hit a high of $13,880 at the end of June and traded largely in a sideways manner around $10,000 in the following eight weeks.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 9,431.79.

The projected upper bound is: 9,310.55.

The projected lower bound is: 7,490.06.

The projected closing price is: 8,400.30.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 56.8046. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 33.87. This is not a topping or bottoming area. However, the RSI just crossed above 30 from a bottoming formation. This is a bullish sign. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -50. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed up 199.500 at 8,459.500. Volume was 65% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 54% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
8,236.7508,538.9008,165.6508,459.500 30,080
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 8,592.91 9,900.98 8,424.50
Volatility: 85 59 80
Volume: 76,718 80,287 84,193

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX BTC= is currently 0.4% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 7 periods.

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