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Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) continues to look north and may rise to $9,000 in the short-term


Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) continues to look north and may rise to $9,000 in the short-term

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to look north and may rise to $9,000 in the short-term despite a U.S. regulator’s decision to reject a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) proposal.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Wednesday announced that the ETF proposal filed by Bitwise Asset Management in conjunction with NYSE Arca did not meet the necessary requirements to prevent market manipulation and illicit activities.

The top cryptocurrency by market value hit a two-week high of $8,708 on Bitstamp and retreated to levels below $8,550 before CoinDesk reported the SEC’s decision at 21:45 UTC yesterday.

However, BTC remained bid following the negative news and has been restricted largely to a narrow range of $8,500–$8,650 in the hours since.

The cryptocurrency’s resilience is not surprising, as the market had set its bar of expectations low following the regulator’s repeated rejection of various ETF proposals over the last 12 months. Further, the low odds of the SEC approving the ETF had been priced in long ago, according to popular analyst Alex Kruger.

Bitcoin’s ability to hold on to gains may indicate Wednesday’s rally was primarily driven by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to expand its balance sheet again.

Many observers had associated the price rise with speculation that the SEC might approve a new bitcoin-based ETF. If that had been the case, the cryptocurrency would have faced a sell-off following the regulator’s decision.

All-in-all, the doors remain open for BTC to continue rising amid the Fed’s move to increase its balance. As of writing, BTC is changing hands at $8,530 on Bitstamp, representing 3.54 percent gains on a 24-hour basis.

Short-term technical studies are calling a move higher toward $9,000, as seen below.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 9,253.33.

The projected upper bound is: 9,349.11.

The projected lower bound is: 7,736.81.

The projected closing price is: 8,542.96.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 20 white candles and 30 black candles for a net of 10 black candles.

A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 87.0142. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 44.97. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 145.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed down -3.921 at 8,575.060. Volume was 95% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 15% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
8,579.5008,630.3008,436.4908,575.060 4,407
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 8,271.74 9,474.33 8,637.28
Volatility: 44 55 80
Volume: 79,967 79,917 85,360

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX BTC= is currently 0.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 17 periods.

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