Home Crypto Bitcoin Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) continues to dial back gains

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) continues to dial back gains


Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) continues to dial back gains

Bitcoin continues to dial back gains seen in the last week of November amid a parabolic rise in bullish bets on the cryptocurrency.

The premier cryptocurrency fell to $6,828 on Monday to print the lowest level since Nov. 25 and was last seen changing hands near $6,900, according to CoinDesk’s Bitcoin Price Index.

With the drop to three-week lows, bitcoin has erased 76 percent of the corrective bounce from lows near $6,500 to $7,870 witnessed in the five days to Nov. 29.

While the cryptocurrency is losing ground, the number of bullish bets, as represented by the BTC/USD long positions on Bitfinex, have jumped to a record high of 44,523 contracts, surpassing the previous high of 40,193 reached in March 2018. Meanwhile, short positions have remained stuck largely in the 5,000–8,000 range.

As can be seen (above left), longs have increased by 78 percent in the last three weeks.

Interestingly, bullish bets began rising on Nov. 24 – a day before BTC bounced from six-month lows near $6,500 (above right) – and have continued to surge despite the recent pullback.

It’s likely that the sharp rise in longs represents traders who believe the cryptocurrency has made a major bottom near $6,500.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 7,872.65.

The projected upper bound is: 7,110.55.

The projected lower bound is: 6,090.01.

The projected closing price is: 6,600.28.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 19 white candles and 31 black candles for a net of 12 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 19.8240. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 17 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 29.33. This is where it usually bottoms. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 21 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -178.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed up 42.830 at 6,656.050. Volume was 60% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 44% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
6,617.5006,756.7006,477.7806,656.050 32,685
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 7,060.27 7,968.33 9,320.75
Volatility: 32 41 74
Volume: 76,149 80,561 85,071

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX BTC= is currently 28.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of BTC= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 34 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that BTC= is currently in an oversold condition.

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