Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Continued Risk of Weakness

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Continued Risk of Weakness

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Continued Risk of Weakness

Yesterday, there was a significant downward move below the $3,650 support level in bitcoin price against the US Dollar. The BTC/USD pair even traded below the $3,560 support level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. It spiked below the $3,500 support and a low was formed near the $3,465 level. Later, the price recovered a few points above the $3,500 and $3,525 resistance levels. Besides, there was a break above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the $3,701 swing high to $3,467 low.

However, the previous support near the $3,550 and $3,560 levels acted as a strong barrier for buyers. The price even struggled to test the 50% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the $3,701 swing high to $3,467 low. There were a couple of swing moves near the $3,550 level, with no upside break. At the outset, the price is trading inside an expanding triangle with resistance near the $3,580 level. Moreover, there is a major bearish trend line in place with resistance near $3,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Therefore, a break above the $3,580 and $3,600 resistance levels is needed for a decent recovery.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 3,956.29.

The projected lower bound is: 3,090.10.

The projected closing price is: 3,523.20.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 15.7836. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 42.24. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 36 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -100.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed up 9.770 at 3,530.190. Volume was 64% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 45% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
3,521.1203,610.9003,481.5803,530.190 29,460

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 3,585.82 3,672.32 5,705.42
Volatility: 49 75 67
Volume: 67,721 84,479 81,242

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX BTC= is currently 38.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 7 periods.

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