Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) bull run from April lows near $4,100 seems to have stalled
Bitcoin needs to break above stiff resistance at $12,000 to unleash the next phase of the bull market, which began from lows near $4,100 on April 1.
The top cryptocurrency by market value is currently trading at $11,527 on Bitstamp, having fallen back from a one-month high of $12,325 yesterday.
This isn’t the first time BTC has failed to hold on to gains above $12,000. The cryptocurrency jumped to a high of $13,880 on June 26 only to fall back below $12,000 on the following day. Similar price action was seen in the following two weeks. Notably, prices rose to $13,200 on July 10, only to fall back below $10,000 the following day.
BTC fell 2.8 percent yesterday, snapping its seven-day winning streak.
More importantly, the cryptocurrency failed to close above the upper edge of the falling channel on the daily chart and created a candle with a long upper shadow – another sign of buyer exhaustion above $12,000.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 10,119.98.
The projected upper bound is: 13,609.75.
The projected lower bound is: 9,843.57.
The projected closing price is: 11,726.66.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 31 white candles and 19 black candles for a net of 12 white candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 74.7939. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 63.54. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 41 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 126.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX BTC= closed up 12.970 at 11,675.970. Volume was 5% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 3% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 10,674.87 10,784.15 6,674.73
Volatility: 49 107 78
Volume: 86,957 94,004 80,408
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX BTC= is currently 74.9% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.