Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) bounces off its 50-day moving average

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) bounces off its 50-day moving average

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) bounces off its 50-day moving average

Bitcoin (BTC) ended its longest losing streak in seven months over the weekend, but the outlook still remains bearish.

The top cryptocurrency by market capitalization eked out 10.83 percent gains in the three days to July 20, confirming a green candle on the three-day chart.

The green candle notably formed following three consecutive red candles, representing bitcoin’s longest losing streak since the end of December, according to Bitstamp data.

As seen above, bitcoin’s recovery rally from the bear market low of $3,122 on Dec. 15 ended with a four-candle losing streak, which saw prices create a bearish lower high at $4,236 and drop by 15 percent to $3,560.

The resistance created at $4,236 remained intact for more than three months before bitcoin breached that on the back of higher volumes on April 2, confirming a long term bearish-to-bullish trend change.

What followed was a solid rise to $13,880 by June 24. Essentially, BTC more than tripled in value in six months to June 24 and was looking overbought at the start of the current month.

The moving average convergence divergence histogram has crossed below zero, signaling a bullish-to-bearish trend change, meaning the bounce from the July 17 low of $9,049 has ended and prices may fall back below $10,000 over the next 24 hours.

Supporting the bearish case is the below 50-print on the relative strength index.

Bitcoin, however, may rise to $12,000 this week if prices break above $11,080, activating twin bullish cues: invalidation of lower highs and an inverse head-and-shoulders breakout.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

The projected upper bound is: 12,111.03.

The projected lower bound is: 8,380.42.

The projected closing price is: 10,245.72.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 31 white candles and 19 black candles for a net of 12 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 55.9680. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 46.51. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 26 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -56. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 22 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed down -85.900 at 10,212.000. Volume was 74% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 15% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
10,324.50010,384.81010,171.60010,212.000 23,123

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 10,381.13 10,153.04 6,180.06
Volatility: 99 109 78
Volume: 90,064 91,676 79,462

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX BTC= is currently 65.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 7 periods.

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