Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) bounce would weaken if prices find acceptance below the support level, currently at $7,753
Bitcoin (BTC) has again defended historically strong price support near $7,700, keeping the hopes of a corrective rally alive.
The top cryptocurrency faced selling pressure and fell below $8,000 over the weekend, contradicting the possibility of a recovery rally above $8,500 suggested by a key technical indicator on Friday.
Even so, all is not lost for the bulls, as the widely-tracked 100-week moving average (MA) support has held ground. BTC almost tested the key technical line at $7,753 in the Asian trading hours before rising back above $8,000 around 12:20 UTC.
Notably, the long-term MA has been acting as strong support since the last week of September. Now, the bears’ repeated failure to penetrate key support may draw bids from short-term traders, yielding a corrective rally.
BTC’s defense of the 100-day MA may also excite long-term investors, as the MA had served as a base during nascent stages of the previous bull market, as seen in the chart below.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 9,280.83.
The projected upper bound is: 9,044.15.
The projected lower bound is: 7,414.36.
The projected closing price is: 8,229.25.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 6 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 61.6395. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 37.21. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 45. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX BTC= closed up 63.360 at 8,277.120. Volume was 69% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 30% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 8,177.75 9,583.53 8,568.73
Volatility: 37 55 80
Volume: 84,715 80,212 85,077
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX BTC= is currently 3.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of BTC= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 14 periods. Our momentum oscillator has set a new 14-period high while the security price has not. This is a bullish divergence.