Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Bounce upwards may cause price momentum

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Bounce upwards may cause price momentum

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Bounce upwards may cause price momentum

Bitcoin [BTC] recently saw a recovery in its price, moving upwards within its tightly defined trading range. The movement upwards may increase the momentum of the price and bring back swing traders, who have left the market due to claustrophobic trading ranges.

A downtrend is seen from $6,405 – $6,375, with an uptrend from $6,410 to $6,460. There are resistance levels set at $6,425 and $6,480, with supports at $6,385 and $6,365.

The MACD is demonstrating bullish crossover recently. However, the price momentum might carry the price further upwards.

The Relative Vigor Index is set for a bearish crossover, with the MA line set to move downwards over the signal line.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 6,840.57.

The projected lower bound is: 6,146.15.

The projected closing price is: 6,493.36.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

An engulfing bullish line occurred (where a white candle’s real body completely contains the previous black candle’s real body). The engulfing bullish pattern is bullish during a downtrend. It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bears to the bulls.

If the engulfing bullish pattern occurs during an uptrend (which appears to be the case with FOREX BTC=), it may be a last engulfing top which indicates a top. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes below the top of the current (white) candle’s real body.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 52.3103. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 35 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 51.59. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 81 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 45. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 15 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed up 91.340 at 6,491.100. Volume was 60% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 75% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
6,399.6906,514.4006,369.6006,491.100 30,785

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 6,432.25 6,475.26 7,166.17
Volatility: 25 34 55
Volume: 46,183 66,374 76,378

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX BTC= is currently 9.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 11 periods.

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