Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) bounce that could see the cryptocurrency end the year at nearly double its current price
A bitcoin renaissance could see the digital currency rise by as much as 84 per cent by the end of 2019, according to a panel of experts polled by Finder.com.au.
After peaking at $US20,000 in December 2017 off the back of a global cryptocurrency mania, bitcoin lost 71 per cent of its value and spent most of last year hovering around the $US4000 mark. At the time of writing, bitcoin was trading at just under $US3500.
Of the six fintech experts who offered their predictions, Digital Capital Management chief operating officer Ben Ritchie was the most bullish, tipping a year-end price of $US9500. The average price prediction was just under $US7000.
“Two things to look out for in 2019 will be whether we will see decoupling of the cryptocurrencies, as to date they have trended in a relatively similar manner,” Mr Richie said in the report, forecasting a “slow and steady rise in 2019”.
“The second is the impact of the traditional markets on cryptocurrencies. Will bitcoin rise if the S&P drops? On-ramp and off-ramps to purchasing cryptocurrencies will improve in 2019 with Bakkt and Fidelity Group entering the market. However, I do not believe we will see many institutional investors enter for some time yet.”
It comes as a poll by the comparison website found millennials have been the biggest adopters, with 12 per cent of respondents aged 24 to 38 saying they invest in cryptocurrency, which would equate to 661,000 young Australians.
Bitcoin, the original digital currency, was the most in-demand, followed by ethereum and ripple. Overall some 6 per cent of adults, or an estimated 1.1 million Australians, said they invest in cryptocurrency, up from 5 per cent a year ago.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 3,917.28.
The projected upper bound is: 3,773.49.
The projected lower bound is: 3,052.45.
The projected closing price is: 3,412.97.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 2 white candles and 8 black candles for a net of 6 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.
A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 23.4822. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 20 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 38.89. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 50 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -61. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX BTC= closed down -1.650 at 3,414.500. Volume was 72% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 73% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 3,433.78 3,685.78 5,479.80
Volatility: 24 61 65
Volume: 64,749 76,226 79,797
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX BTC= is currently 37.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 21 periods.
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