Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) bearish volume divergence indicates prices could fall back to the July 17 low of $9,049
Bitcoin (BTC) fell below key support above $10,000 earlier today and could suffer a deeper drop, according to price and volume analysis.
The top cryptocurrency by market value violated a trendline representing the recent four-month bull run with a move below $11,017 at 06:30 UTC and went on to a hit a low of $9,897 on Bitstamp.
With the pullback from Saturday’s high of $11,140 to sub-$10,000 levels, BTC has established yet another bearish lower high – the most basic of all bearish technical patterns – on the daily chart.
As a result, the bears are expected to dominate proceedings in the short term. In fact, BTC could fall all the way back to the July 17 low of $9,097, erasing the low-volume bounce from that level to $11,120 seen in four days to July 20.
Popular cryptocurrency trader and mentor Chonis Trading took note of the bearish volume divergence on a 12-hour chart on July 21. A bearish volume divergence occurs when trading volumes drop, creating lower highs as opposed to higher lows (an uptick) on the price chart.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 12,009.67.
The projected lower bound is: 8,358.79.
The projected closing price is: 10,184.23.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 31 white candles and 19 black candles for a net of 12 white candles.
A doji star occurred (where a doji gaps above or below the previous candle). This often signals a reversal with confirmation occurring on the next bar.
A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 39.1962. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 45.95. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 27 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -65. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 23 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX BTC= closed down -9.210 at 10,134.540. Volume was 98% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 15% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 10,323.76 10,201.37 6,211.21
Volatility: 98 104 78
Volume: 87,593 91,479 79,424
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX BTC= is currently 63.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 8 periods.