Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Bearish All Over Again?

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Bearish All Over Again?

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Bearish All Over Again?

This figure marks a drop of roughly $700 over the past few days. The currency is incurring some very strange behavior as of late, though there doesn’t seem to be much of an explanation regarding why this behavior is happening.

Let’s start off with the basics. To do this, we must go back to the end of October, when bitcoin was really trapped in a rut following the disappointing opening of Bakkt and the Mark Zuckerberg hearing regarding Libra, Facebook’s new cryptocurrency project. At that time, the currency was traversing through the doldrums and trading in the mid-$7,000 range, a new low considering it had been doing relatively will since the summer despite a few drops here and there.

Then came some positive comments regarding blockchain technology from Chinese president Xi Jinping, who said that blockchain had the power to reinvigorate the economy of China and potentially rebuild its infrastructure. He further stated he would do everything in his power to push blockchain innovation within the country.

This proved substantial to the bitcoin price, which spiked to nearly $8,600 following the comments. However, from there, Bakkt continued to improve its present status and ultimately found itself trading more than $2 million in bitcoin futures contracts, which also assisted in the currency’s sudden rise to power. BTC once again found itself trading in the $9,000 range – something it hadn’t done since late September. Thus, more than a month passed before the currency was able to regain its stamina.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 9,267.32.

The projected lower bound is: 7,686.79.

The projected closing price is: 8,477.05.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 18 white candles and 32 black candles for a net of 14 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 39.1132. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 19 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 42.27. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 42 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -91. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed down -91.899 at 8,468.400. Volume was 64% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 34% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
8,545.5008,662.9008,310.5408,468.400 28,278

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 8,665.16 8,574.28 9,334.90
Volatility: 32 61 79
Volume: 70,597 79,376 85,710

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX BTC= is currently 9.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of BTC= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 4 periods.

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