Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) At Risk of Sharp Decline

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) At Risk of Sharp Decline

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) At Risk of Sharp Decline

Recently, there was a decent support formed near $3,550 in bitcoin price against the US Dollar. The BTC/USD pair started a short term recovery and moved above the $3,600 and $3,620 resistance levels. There was also a break above the 50% Fib retracement level of the last side from the $3,716 high to $3,549 low. However, the price struggled to hold gains above the $3,650 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. A clear rejection candle was formed near the $3,650 level.

Besides, the price failed to surpass the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last side from the $3,716 high to $3,549 low. As a result, there was a bearish reaction and the price declined below $3,620 and $3,600. More importantly, there was a break below a major contracting triangle with support at $3,590 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The pair is now trading well below $3,620 and the 100 hourly SMA. Should bitcoin gain bearish momentum below the $3,550 support, the price may tumble below the $3,500 and $3,450 support levels.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 4,045.34.

The projected lower bound is: 3,126.45.

The projected closing price is: 3,585.90.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.

A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 35.3184. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 43.57. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 31 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -71. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed down -3.940 at 3,598.570. Volume was 60% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 49% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
3,597.9203,683.8003,565.7803,598.570 31,609

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 3,684.97 3,719.45 5,780.85
Volatility: 66 79 67
Volume: 74,787 87,827 82,398

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX BTC= is currently 37.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.

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