Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) and the Primacy of the Digital World

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) and the Primacy of the Digital World

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) and the Primacy of the Digital World

As a fervent bitcoin enthusiast, I frequently come across the following objection: In contrast to physical, analog things, bitcoin and similar crypto assets are completely virtual and digital. As such, they are neither tangible nor graspable and would thus lack any real basis of value.

Because of their digital nature, many people still object to bitcoin, refuse to take it seriously or consider it altogether too scary. Some even lump the crypto asset in with other eerie and unsavory developments in tech and the ongoing digital transformation.

Be Not Afraid of the Digital World

Among greatest digital threats seems to be the phenomenon of “deepfake” media. This is a term that has been in common use since 2017 for the technology used to create deceptively authentic-looking images and videos. Many politicians, actors and other celebrities have already fallen victim to this practice. Deepfake videos put words into their mouths that they never said or make them perform actions they never did. What is real and what is not? 

Some technophobes fear that because the capabilities of the digital world are increasingly blurring our notions of reality and what is artifice, political as well as societal life could become ever more confused and agitated. Democracy hinging on the fact that civil discourse and public debate happen among educated and enlightened citizens is very much in danger because the “fake” will become indistinguishable from the truth. 

Within the reactionary mistrust of all things digital, bitcoin is getting its share of blowback as well. If this sort of mistrust resonates with you, I am here to tell you — some of these hazards associated with an increasingly digital world are certainly true. But Bitcoin is your ally, not your foe in this. 

When looking at bitcoin, the juxtaposition of analog and digital might seem obvious at first glance — dissecting it further though reveals some interesting twists. Although bitcoin is virtual and non-corporeal, as a new manifestation of money it has actually overcome many characteristics of what is typically associated with the digital realm.

Bitcoin as an Asset

Interestingly, bitcoin as an asset does experience increasing marginal costs in production, a feature that can be seen in conjunction with gold, a tangible asset of the corporeal world. The more gold is produced, the more expensive it becomes. In the case of bitcoin, the production of new units is algorithmically set to a maximum per block/time interval. In other words, no matter how hard one tries, one can never produce more bitcoin within a period of approximately 10 minutes than the amount specified by the code. It is this digital scarcity imported via the real world that makes bitcoin potentially valuable.. The potentiality of value is being actualized as more people are persuaded of its absolute digital scarcity, since any realized value is always the result of subjective value judgements by individuals.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

The projected upper bound is: 8,560.10.

The projected lower bound is: 7,404.03.

The projected closing price is: 7,982.07.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

A hammer occurred (a hammer has a long lower shadow and closes near the high). Hammers must appear after a significant decline or when prices are oversold to be valid. When this occurs, it usually indicates the formation of a support level and is thus considered a bullish pattern.

A hanging man occurred (a hanging man has a very long lower shadow and a small real body). This pattern can be bullish or bearish, depending on the trend. If it occurs during an uptrend (which appears to be the case with FOREX BTC=) it is called a hanging man line and signifies a reversal top. If it occurs during a downtrend it is called a bullish hammer.

A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 72.3589. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 65.29. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 22 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 145.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 21 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed down -19.610 at 7,985.000. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 20% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
8,004.0008,014.2207,874.4107,985.000 1,148
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 7,498.73 7,321.71 9,179.08
Volatility: 51 50 72
Volume: 84,774 88,890 85,937

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX BTC= is currently 13.0% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into BTC= (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 4 periods.

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