Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) $4,000 resistance holds

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) $4,000 resistance holds

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) $4,000 resistance holds

Bitcoin prices traded lower on Monday, falling more than 1% as the best-known cryptocurrency failed to breach short-term resistance at $4,000.

In early afternoon trade on Monday, a single bitcoin BTCUSD, -0.60% was changing hands at $3,839.00, down 1.5% since Sunday’s level at 5 p.m. Eastern time on the Kraken exchange. The cryptocurrency has slipped 2.7% from its Sunday high near $3,950.

What are analysts saying

“With bitcoin lagging behind while other cryptos surge, the feeling is that the crypto winter is coming to a close and it is now alt season,” wrote Mati Greenspan, senior market analyst at eToro.

Alt season, or altcoin season, is a term for the outperformance of smaller digital currencies. Some analysts see this is a sign the broader crypto market is basing, noting that during the crypto selloff beginning in late 2017, altcoins severely underperformed.

“Of course, there’s no telling how long this could last but the signs are all in place. Global volume across crypto exchanges is holding steady at around $30 billion per day, yet bitcoin’s volume is less than a third of that figure,” Greenspan continued.

Since bitcoin bottomed on Dec. 15, its share of the total value of all cryptocurrencies has fallen to 51.7% from 55.2%, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 4,118.58.

The projected lower bound is: 3,551.76.

The projected closing price is: 3,835.17.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 6 black candles.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 34.3051. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 50.62. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 16 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -17. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 13 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed down -113.300 at 3,829.000. Volume was 65% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 52% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
3,942.3003,954.9003,791.0703,829.000 25,551

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 3,876.11 3,682.42 4,910.23
Volatility: 53 48 65
Volume: 55,738 67,334 75,095

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX BTC= is currently 22.0% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 29 periods.

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