Until recently it wasn’t easy to bet against bitcoin—if you thought a cryptocurrency was overvalued your only option was to sell what you held.
That all changed on December 10 when the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) opened the inaugural futures market for bitcoin, followed a week later by a futures market on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).
During the first seven months of 2018 the price of bitcoin collapsed 53%—a fall supposedly triggered by concerns over regulation, exchange hacks and a general slowdown in trading.
For most, the decline was a disaster, wrecking small fortunes invested in the burgeoning cryptocurrency market.
For others, the plunge since December 2017 triggered a windfall, conveniently coinciding with the creation of the first mainstream methods of betting against bitcoin.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
The projected upper bound is: 6,911.62.
The projected lower bound is: 5,304.28.
The projected closing price is: 6,107.95.
A big white candle occurred. This is generally considered bullish, as prices closed significantly higher than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “low,” it may be the first sign of a bottom. If it occurs when prices are rebounding off of a support area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or retracement level), the long white candle adds credibility to the support. Similarly, if the candle appears during a breakout above a resistance area, the long white candle adds credibility to the breakout.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 1 white candles and 0 black candles for a net of 1 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 2 white candles and 0 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.
A falling window occurred (where the bottom of the previous shadow is above the top of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bearish trend. There have been 29 falling windows in the last 50 candles–this makes the current falling window even more bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 0.0013. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 38.88. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -62. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
NYSE BitcoinIndx closed down -189.790 at 6,172.115. Volume was -0% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 62% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 6,455.76 7,327.23 9,141.24
Volatility: 85 71 125
Volume: 0 0 0
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
NYSE BitcoinIndx gapped down today (bearish) on normal volume. Possibility of a Runaway Gap which usually signifies a continuation of the trend. Four types of price gaps exist – Common, Breakaway, Runaway, and Exhaustion. Gaps acts as support/resistance.
NYSE BitcoinIndx is currently 32.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into .NYXBT (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on .NYXBT and have had this outlook for the last 4 periods.
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