This past week, bitcoin price extended its rise above the $12,000 and $12,100 resistance levels against the US Dollar. BTC even climbed above the $12,400 level and traded to a new monthly high at $12,489.
However, it failed to continue higher above the $12,500 resistance. It is currently correcting lower and trading below the $12,250 support level. There was a break below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $11,124 swing low to $12,498 high.
It is now trading below the $11,900 level and the 55 simple moving average (4-hours). An initial support is near the $11,645 level. It coincides with the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $11,124 swing low to $12,498 high.
There is also a crucial bullish trend line forming with support near $11,640 on the 4-hours chart of the BTC/USD pair. If there is a downside break below the trend line, the price could continue to move down below $11,500.
The next major support is near the $11,400 level, below which there is a risk of a larger decline in the coming sessions. On the upside, the $12,000 level might act as a strong resistance. A clear break above $12,000 and a close above the 55 simple moving average (4-hours) might start a fresh increase.
The next key resistance for the bulls could be $12,250, above which the price is likely to rise towards the $12,500 barrier in the coming sessions.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
The projected upper bound is: 12,552.75.
The projected lower bound is: 10,913.87.
The projected closing price is: 11,733.31.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 32 white candles and 18 black candles for a net of 14 white candles.
An inverted hammer occurred. If this occurs during a downtrend it implies a reversal. Look for a confirmation of the reversal on the bar.
A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).
A shooting star occurred (a shooting star has a small real body near the bottom of the candle and a long upper shadow). During an uptrend(which appears to be the case with FOREX BTC=) the long upper shadow indicates that the bears are gaining control and a top may occur.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 26.5219. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 56.00. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 13 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 1. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX BTC= closed down -29.120 at 11,684.420. Volume was 55% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 15% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 11,715.250 11,852.840 11,684.190 11,684.420 269,815
Technical Outlook Short Term: Neutral Intermediate Term: Bullish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 11,766.88 10,426.89 8,966.52 Volatility: 52 47 84 Volume: 953,139 722,492 521,155
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX BTC= is currently 30.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods.
Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 37 periods.