Bitcoin (BTC) Oversold Marks 15-Month Lows

Bitcoin (BTC) Oversold Marks 15-Month Lows


Bitcoin (BTC) tumbled to 15-month lows Friday, negating hopes of a rally signaled by extreme oversold conditions.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap fell to $3,200 on Bitstamp at 00:15 UTC the lowest mark since September 2017.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading at: 3,218.68-16.80, or -0.5192%, as of 8:27p GMT, the market is open.

BTC was ranged in a 5 day-long narrowing price range 24 Thursday, and showed signs that it might break North with a strong move toward the major resistance at $3,633.

The Bullish expectations were based on a premise that the sellers are facing exhaustion, as indicated by the 14-wk RSI (relative strength index), having triggered a 49% price decline in the last 4 weeks.

Further, evidence of bargain hunting came in earlier this week in the form of a 3-day inverted hammer candle.

But, BTC fell out of the narrowing price range in US trading hours Friday, negating the prospects of a short-term inverted hammer Bullish reversal above $3,633.

BTC’s persistent failure to produce a notable price bounce despite extreme oversold conditions indicates that the Bearish sentiment is very strong in here.

As a result, a convincing break below the 200-wk MA support of $3,170 cannot be ruled out now.

4-hr Chart

The symmetrical triangle breakdown seen in the 4-hr indicates a resumption of the sell-off from the 29 November high at $4,410.

The stacking order of the 50-candle MA, below the 100-candle MA, below the 200-candle SMA, is a classic Bear indicator. The RSI has also fallen back into Bearish territory below 50.00.

BTC now risks falling to the psych mark at $3,000. On the way South, it may encounter support at $3,179 (200-wk MA).

Daily Chart

As seen above, BTC has charted lower price highs (marked by arrows) along the downward sloping 10-Day EMA.

Note: BTC persistently failed to close above that EMA mark at the end of the last month.

Hence, the 10-Day EMA, currently at $3,465, is the mark to break for the Bulls.

Over View

  • The range breakdown on the hourly chart may have opened the way to $3,000.
  • The 14-wk RSI remains below 30.00, marking oversold conditions. Recent price action indicates that the market is paying little heed to the indicator.
  • A UTC close above the 10-Day EMA of $3,465, if confirmed, could be considered a sign of short-term Bullish reversal.

Have a terrific weekend

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