Now the world now a very sharp understanding of what a Black Swan event is.
Yes, we are seeing a global health crisis, and those of us who are looking are seeing the coming restructuring of the global economic order.
The Key is how investors navigating to what is coming next.
The Big Q: What will the future look like?
The Big A: In this coming era we will witness a fundamental restructuring of the economic and social order in which business and society have here to for operated. Lives, businesses and living will be reshaped.
Returning businesses to operational health after this shutdown is challenging but will be done.
Most industries will need to think their supply chain. The weakest point in the chain will determine success and the return to rehiring, training, and attaining workforce productivity.
Leaders will reassess their entire business system and plan for contingent actions in order to return their business to effective production at pace and scale.
Opportunities to push tech and AI adoption will be accelerated by rapid learning about what it takes to drive productivity when well trained labor is scarce and/or unavailable.
The result will be a stronger sense of what makes business more resilient to shocks, more productive, and better able to deliver products to customers.
Business leaders must now contend with strengthening the system to withstand acute global shocks, such as this virus’ pandemic’s impact.
Investors will focus on businesses that will and will not benefit the shock now and those that may/will be ahead.
My colleagues and see the following initially benefiting from the recovery of this coronavirus shock, they are as follows:
- pharmaceutical manufacturers,
- retail pharmaceutical,
- retail grocery,
- paper goods suppliers,
- online education,
- quality fast food,
- internet and computer sciences,
- web and video conferencing,
- gold and other precious metals,
- healthcare and hospitals,
- private schools and universities
- food supplements
And here is the list of industries that will take some time to come back to where they were prior to the coronavirus shock, they are as follows:
- airlines and cruise lines,
- ski resorts and vacation spots,
- local transportation,
- gasoline stations,
- brick and mortar retail,
- non-essential services,
- sit down restaurants,
- general manufacturing,
- mining, except precious metals
- public education
- automobiles, especially EVs
- oil & nat gas exploration and production
- green energy
As we consider the scale of change that the coronavirus has brought forth and will continue in the weeks and months ahead we must realize that there comes from this crisis the imminent restructuring of the global economic order.
How this crisis resolves remains to be seen, what we do know is that it will resolve…
Have a healthy day, stay home!