Being Alive Means We Are at Risk to Die Sooner or Later…

Being Alive Means We Are at Risk to Die Sooner or Later…

Most people do not think about this. If you are not careful, anything can kill you, and it will! And the C-19 coronavirus is among the least of them.

The CDC just came out with a report that should be earth-shattering to the narrative of the US political class, but it will go on the pile of Key data and information about the C-19 coronavirus that is not getting out to The People.

For the 1st time, the CDC has offered a real estimate of the overall death rate for C-19, and under its most likely scenario, the number is 0.26%.

Officials estimate a 0.4% fatality rate among those who are symptomatic and project a 35% rate of asymptomatic cases among those infected, which drops the overall IFR (infection fatality rate) to just 0.26% almost exactly where Stanford researchers pegged it over a month ago.

Conservatives have been ridiculed for thinking the death rate was that low, as opposed to the 3.4% estimate of the WHO, which helped to drive the chaos and the lockdowns. Now the CDC is agreeing to the lower rate.

Plus, ultimately we will find out that the IFR is even lower because numerous studies and hard counts of confined populations have shown a much higher percentage of asymptomatic cases. Simply adjusting for a 50% asymptomatic rate would drop their fatality rate to 0.2%, exactly the rate of fatality Dr. John Ionnidis of Stanford University projected.

The overall death rate is meaningless because the numbers are lopsided. Given that at least 50% of the deaths were in nursing homes, a rough estimate would show that the infection fatality rate for non-nursing home residents would only be 0.1% or 1 in 1,000. And that includes people of all ages and all health statuses outside of nursing homes. Since nearly all of the deaths are those with 1 or more comorbidities.

The CDC estimates the death rate from C-19 for those under 50 is 1 in 5,000 for those with symptoms, which would be 1 in 6,725 overall, but again, almost all those who die have specific comorbidities or underlying serious medical conditions. Those without them are more likely to die in a car accident. And schoolchildren, whose lives, mental health, and education we are destroying, are more likely to get struck by lightning.

To put this in perspective, juxtaposed the age-separated infection fatality rates in Spain to the average yearly probability of dying of anything for the same age groups, based on data from the Social Security Administration.

Using Spain because we do not have a detailed infection fatality rate estimate for each age group from any survey in the US yet. We so know that Spain fared worse than almost every other country on the Planet. This data is actually working with a Top-line IFR of 1%, roughly 4X what the CDC estimates for the US, so if anything, the corresponding numbers for the US will be less.

Spain, the death rates from COVID-19 for younger people are very low and are well below the annual death rate for any age group in a given year. For children, despite their young age, they are 10-30 times more likely to die from other causes in any given year.

While obviously yearly death rates factor in myriad of causes of death and COVID-19 is just one virus, it still provides much-needed perspective to a public policy response that is completely divorced from the risk for all but the oldest and sickest people in the country.

In Spain the death rates from C-19 coronavirus for younger people are very low and well below the annual death rate for any age group in a given year. For children, despite their young age, they are 10-30X more likely to die from other causes in any given year.

While yearly death rates factor in lots of causes of death and C-19 coronavirus is just 1 virus, it still provides the needed perspective to a public policy response that is completely divorced from the risk for all but the oldest and sickest people in the country.

Keep in mind these numbers represent the chance of dying once 1 has contracted the disease, aka the IFR. Once you couple the chance of contracting the virus in the 1st place together with the chance of dying from it, again many younger people have a higher chance of dying from a lightning strike.

There are 4 infectious disease doctors in Canada that estimate the individual rate of death from C-19 coronavirus for people under 65 anni of age is 6 per 1-M people, or 0.0006%, 1 in 166,666,”roughly equivalent to the risk of dying from a motor vehicle accident during the same time period.” These numbers are for Canada, which did have fewer deaths per capita than the US.

Now, if you take New York City and its surrounding counties out of the equation, the 2 countries are pretty much the same. And, remember, so much of the death is associated with the suicidal political decisions of certain states and countries to place C-19 coronavirus patients in nursing homes. And 62% of all C-19 coronavirus deaths were in the 6 states confirmed to have done this, even though they compose just 18% of the US population.

For that we destroyed our entire country and suspended democracy all for a lie, and these people perpetrated the unscientific degree of panic.

The Big Q: Will deep state Doctors Doom ever admit the grave consequences of their purposeful error?

Note:

LIGHTNING, the FEAR: Being struck by lightning will kill you.

According to the National Weather Service, over the 30-yr period from Ys 1986 to 2015, only 10% of the people struck by lightning in the US died. That is an average of 48 lightning fatalities each year.

THE HOSPITAL, the FEAR: Being in the hospital exposes you to more and more virulent bacteria.

Being in the hospital does increase your risk of catching something, says Dr. Amesh Adalja at the Infectious Diseases Society of America. But microorganisms are everywhere, he says, and the increased risk of visiting noncontagious patients is negligible. “The world teems with bacteria,” Adalja says. “There’s really no way to avoid them.” Patients should be cautious. There were an estimated 722,000 healthcare-associated infections in US hospitals in Y 2011, the most recent data, resulting in an estimated 75,000 deaths.

Have a healthy week, Keep the Faith!

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, a polymath, excels, in diverse fields of knowledge Including Pattern Recognition Analysis in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange, and he it the author of "The Red Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a highly regarded, weekly financial market commentary. He is a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to over a million cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognize Ebeling as an expert.   

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