The 1st Test of Our Economic Strength is a Man Made Virus

The 1st Test of Our Economic Strength is a Man Made Virus

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX This health emergency was dismissed at 1st as a fleeting risk to the US economy has turned into a full test of whether 20 yrs of planning, regulation and research has left the financial system resilient to a major shock and the Fed able to mount a rescue. Preparations for an […]

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street, The Bulls Vs The Bears

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street, The Bulls Vs The Bears

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX The Bulls Vs The Bears Note: “Big Bear markets end in despair and hopelessness, which many current Bulls will discover at considerable cost to themselves” — Mark Lundeen Be very wary of any advance from here, as it may prove to be what we once called a Dead-Cat Bounce.  A Dead-Cat […]

The 3 Stages of Bull and Bear Markets

The 3 Stages of Bull and Bear Markets

$DIA $XAU $USO What a wild week; I am overwhelmed!  In my articles I usually find a narrative theme in which to insert my graphics But this week the only theme that comes to mind is what an awful week it was, just awful.  Come to think of it, that’s actually a pretty good theme […]

Unprecedented Stresses in US Financial Markets Has Investor Sidelining Trillions in Cash

Unprecedented Stresses in US Financial Markets Has Investor Sidelining Trillions in Cash

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $USD $JPY $VXX Friday, Ultra Long-term US T-Bond futures moved about 1.3 pts a day on average in January, were down more than 7 pts on the day and off 36 pts from Monday’s high. Italian sovereign debt had imploded. An index of costs to insure corporate debt with credit-default swaps […]

People are Asking, “What is going on in this Stock Market?”

People are Asking, “What is going on in this Stock Market?”

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX The Big Q: What is going on in this Stock Market? The Big A: A confluence of confusion aka lots of unknowns. I have been in the stock market since Y 1981, and like everyone else I know in this game, have not see this kind of action ever. What we […]

If You are Worried About Your Portfolio – Slow and Steady Always Wins

If You are Worried About Your Portfolio – Slow and Steady Always Wins

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $USO $GLD Monday, the DJIA saw its worst decliner since Y 2008 in response to news of COVID-19 and the Saudi/Russia Crude Oil price war, and the ride the stock market/s have taken in the last 2 wks has left lot of investors with stomach aches. If you have a 401(k) […]

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX Last week Late Friday, the stock market put up a fight, on the close it was the worst week for equities since late Y 2008, as the S&P 500 (-0.8%) gave back 11.5% since the prior Friday, recording its 7th day running of losses, falling to its lowest level since […]

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX Technical Analysis at the weekended 21 February  NAS Comp: It sold to the 10-Day EMA and then rebounded and filled the gap from Wednesday. It is still using the 10-day EMA as it trends higher. S&P 500: It tapped at the 20-Day EMA on the low, rebounded to a modest […]

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX Last Friday’s Action Stocks recovered but struggled late in the day as the Fed, after a big repurchase operation in the am, said it will reduce the amount of the repos. The overnight repo saw $45.85-B in demand pasting the Fed’s offer. The 2-wk repo saw $59.02-B Vs the $30-B […]

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX DJIA futures are little changed Sunday night, along with S&P 500 futures and NAS Comp futures. The stock market rally showed surprising strength last week, but it is not unprecedented.  The stock market rally’s instant recovery from the coronavirus sell-off was surprising. Normally, when the stock market sells off fast, […]

The Social Contract in the 21st Century

The Social Contract in the 21st Century

McKinsey Global Institute February 2020 Report Subject: Economic outcomes and the relationship between individuals and institutions have shifted for workers, consumers, and savers in advanced economies. Life has changed substantially for individuals in advanced economies in the 1st 2 decades of the 21st Century as a result of trends including disruptions in technology, globalization, the economic […]

The Loneliness Epidemic

The Loneliness Epidemic

According to the most recent statistics, loneliness is at “epidemic” levels in the US, with 46% of adults saying they sometimes or always feel lonely Historically, mankind survived because we banded together and worked as a group. Our very survival often depended on being part of a tribe. When feeling disconnected from community, anxiety and […]

Gold Price Seen at $2,000 Near Term

Gold Price Seen at $2,000 Near Term

$XAU $GLD $SPY $SPX The S&P 500 posted a record high Wednesday at +37.10, or 1.1% at 3334.69 The reverse side of market optimism was the correction of safe-havens such as JPY and Gold. The JPY declined against the Buck, lead USDJPY to its highs in a 1. wks near 109.50, showing a rebound from the 200-Day SMA. Gold dropped […]

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX We are deep in earnings season. Stay tuned daily. What happened last week Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) struggled as caught a bid and rallied The DJIA and the S&P 400 tested the 50-Day MA, but the NAS Comp and S&P 500 did not, but rebounded.Q-4 GDP came in at 2.1% the slowest […]

Investors Must Avoid Undue Reactions to Virus Story

Investors Must Avoid Undue Reactions to Virus Story

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX I herewith urge all investors to avoid making hasty decisions after China announced a rise in cases of a deadly new virus that the media says threatens to crimp global economic growth. Stocks markets pulled back worldwide Monday on the supposition that investors are worried about the potential economic impact of […]

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Market Summary: This long Bull Run still looks look strong, and here is why: Stocks bypassed a soft open Thursday and gapped North. Small and mid-caps joined the large-caps in achieving strong breaks higher. The economic data showed renewed promise. Options expiration Friday came and went. A long weekend came […]

Gold Market Pulls Back

Gold Market Pulls Back

$XAU, $GLD Gold markets initially pulled back during the trading session Monday but turned around to recover some. It is currently hanging around the 1550 mark, an area that had seen a gap higher previously. The markets are trying to feel out whether or not there is a “risk on” or “risk off” flavor to everything. […]

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX Y 2020 extended Y 2019 action as the big tech names led and the smaller-caps lagged. While the S&P 500’s valuation chart may be giving some investors flashbacks to the Y 2018 market meltdown, the Bulls are resolute. Corporate earnings are expected to fall for a 2nd Q running, as […]

Gold Prices Set Up to Pull Back

Gold Prices Set Up to Pull Back

$XAU $GLD Gold markets had a volatile week, breaking above the 1600 mark fell rto form a Shooting Star. The pattern was at the recent highs, so, it is likely that the market is ready to pull back from here. By breaking below the bottom of the weekly candlestick, it is likely that the longer-term trade […]

See Stronger Economy, Higher Growth in This Election Year…Headed “Back to the 3% Growth Zone”

See Stronger Economy, Higher Growth in This Election Year…Headed “Back to the 3% Growth Zone”

$SPY White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow believes the US economy will continue to grow at a robust pace as the Y 2020 election season proceeds. “This continuing Bull market run indicates a lot of investor, consumer and business confidence, in my judgment,” Mr. Kudlow said. Early in Fridays session, the DJIA broke above 29,000 for […]

Gold & Silver: Not a Top, but a Mid-Cycle Correction

Gold & Silver: Not a Top, but a Mid-Cycle Correction

$XAU, $GLD, $XAG, $SLV, $USD Gold’s entered a gentle climb North after marking the 12 November lows. It was not until the Thursday before Christmas when prices verified a cyclical breakout. The initial breakout surge is slowing as the precious Yellow metal enters a mid-cycle correction. Key support is between 1520 – 1540. Once completed, […]

2020: USA, No Recession, Steady Economy, Low Inflation

2020: USA, No Recession, Steady Economy, Low Inflation

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX US stocks will continue to rise this year on very little chance of a recession, and low inflation driving steady economic growth, with real GDP growing around 2.0%, and inflation remains below 2.0%. That is our outlook for Y 2020. We do not see a recession in this year’s US […]

Gold: Would Not Chase it in Here

Gold: Would Not Chase it in Here

$XAU $GLD $USD Do not be surprised if gold moves to consolidate its gains or correct after this jump in prices, a big downturn is not likely on the cards if that happens. Gold’s latest rally comes on back of last week’s US airstrike near Baghdad’s airport that killed General Qassem Soleimani, 1 of Iran’s Top military […]

2020: What to Watch For in Commodities

2020: What to Watch For in Commodities

$DIA $SPY $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX, $SOY, $CORN, $XAU, $CU, $USO This is our 1st What to Watch in the commodities sector, it is an overview of what to expect. The picture mixed, complex picture that emerges. The list covers oil, gold, copper, iron ore, pork and more. The year’s 1st full week of trading could […]

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street, as it Goes Back to Work in 2020

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street, as it Goes Back to Work in 2020

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $APPL $VXX The Y 2020 started off with a Y 2019 flavor as the big names led and the smaller-caps lagged. Chinese stimulus got some credit for the gains, but there is no doubt that new money was put to work as the volume rose to solid marks. Buyers want stocks, […]

2020: ‘Ford v Ferrari’ Would Be Christian Bale’s 5th Oscar

2020: ‘Ford v Ferrari’ Would Be Christian Bale’s 5th Oscar

$RACE, $DIS Christian Bale has earned 4 Oscar nominations and 1 win in the last 10 yrs, and his performance as real-life racer Ken Miles in ‘Ford v Ferrari‘ is looking more and more like a ‘statuette‘ for a Best Actor this year. History has proved it is perilous to underestimate him, especially when he’s playing a […]

2020: The Dow Laggards, Risk or Opportunity?

2020: The Dow Laggards, Risk or Opportunity?

$BA, $IBM, $MMM, $CVX, $XOM Boeing Co. (NYSE:BA) was a disappointment after the 2 deadly 737 Max crashes grounded the entire fleet of that aircraft to where the problems are still not solved. Boeing even finally capitulated and sent its CEO Dennis Muilenburg away. With global geopolitics still hot, and with a weapons and defense race as […]

2020: Apple’s Leadership Cannot Be Ignored

2020: Apple’s Leadership Cannot Be Ignored

$AAPL Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) led the DJIA with a 86% gainer in Y 2019, and the most optimistic analyst right now is still seeing 20% upside potential for Apple in Y 2020. The Big Q: Can the next iPhone release create that super-cycle of upgrades that analysts have been calling for? The Big A: Adding […]

The Financial Markets in Year of the Rat 2020

The Financial Markets in Year of the Rat 2020

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $XRT, $IWM Our New Year is here and we are just a few weeks away from the Chinese New Year, so not too early to share some of my favorite Chinese Astrologer’s thoughts on the coming Year of the Rat, he is famous for his predictions, but not perfect. The background: […]

The Collector’s Car Market 2019

The Collector’s Car Market 2019

After several discussions with experts in the vintage, classic and special interest collector sector, we learned that buyers are not feeling the need to rush into the market as it has cooled. Today’s buyers are said to be people interested in cars for what they actually are, rather than cars representing another alternative investment asset […]

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

$SPY $SPX, $DIA, $QQQ, $RUTX I am saying this again: “All the stress, worries and concerns about trade disputes, geopolitics and a slowing and overly indebted global economy, Y 2019 may be the best year investors have ever had, the numbers are staggering.” And just because sentiment is so very positive does not mean a […]

Heroism,What it Takes, What it Can Lead To, Clint Eastwood Lays it Out in ‘Richard Jewell’

Heroism,What it Takes, What it Can Lead To, Clint Eastwood Lays it Out in ‘Richard Jewell’

Heroism, what it sometimes takes, what it can lead to has been a longstanding interest of Clint Eastwood’s, from his onscreen vigilante icons to his behind-the-camera explorations of real figures in ‘Flags of our Fathers’, ‘American Sniper’ and ‘Sully’. ‘Richard Jewell’ is Director Eastwood’s is his 38th film and his deep dive into the subject […]

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

$SPY $SPX, $XAU, $USO, $USO For all the stress, worries and concerns about trade disputes, geopolitics and a slowing and overly indebted global economy, Y 2019 may be the best year investors have ever had. The numbers are staggering Global stocks have piled on more than $10-T, bonds have been on fire, Crude Oil has […]

Ferrari (NYSE:RACE) Deserves and Receives a Luxury Valuation

Ferrari (NYSE:RACE) Deserves and Receives a Luxury Valuation

$RACE Ferrari (NYSE:RACE) has climbed 64.9% YTD thanks to EPS and revenue beats, in the 9 months of Y 2019, net revenue rose 10.3%, while EBIT increased 10.5% boosted by Monza SP1 and SP2. The company deserves a premium valuation because of its brand value, high margins, and consistent sales growth going forward. Since January […]

History Suggests Wall Street Need Not Worry About President Trump’s Impeachment

History Suggests Wall Street Need Not Worry About President Trump’s Impeachment

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Wednesday, President Trump appeared on the cusp of becoming only the 3rd US President to be impeached, history suggests investors need not worry, even though it adds uncertainty on Wall Street. Strong partisan divisions were on display as members of the House of Representatives engaged in a debate ahead of historic […]

The Law of Attraction and Manifestation Lies in the Age of Information

The Law of Attraction and Manifestation Lies in the Age of Information

For instance, a speaker on innovation, humans and the future said, “The future does not arrive. It’s created.” In short, we, humans, create the future, it just does not happen. So, if one wants to bring positive experiences into life, the focus must be on positive thoughts. Conversely, thinking negative thoughts will bring negative experiences. […]

Seeing This Bull Market Extending into 2020, Not ‘Melting-up’

Seeing This Bull Market Extending into 2020, Not ‘Melting-up’

$SPY, $DIA, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX, $BAC, $UBS, Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, described this Bull market as “primed for Q-1 2020 risk asset melt-up,” with the Fed and the ECB still providing ample support to portions of the market and economy that have shown some signs of softness aka printing money. UBS Global […]

Gold Prices on Pace to Mark Biggest Annual Gainer in 9 Yrs

Gold Prices on Pace to Mark Biggest Annual Gainer in 9 Yrs

$GLD, $XAU, $SLV, $XAG, $USD Gold prices look to end the year more than 15% higher, on track to post their biggest annual gainer in 9 years. “Gold has seen considerable safe haven buying from investors concerned over low and negative yields in the bond market and fearing a possible downturn in equities,” said the […]

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX Am seeing earnings revival boosting stock rally in Y 2020 But 1st, this is what happened last week: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has held steady and is not going to raise rates in Y 2020. Chairman Powell is also open to bond purchases. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) […]

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