Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Will the Rally Last?

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Will the Rally Last?

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Will the Rally Last?

Movements in the Aussie look set to be determined by sentiment and technicals given a quiet economic calendar.

There’s few releases of note in Asia with German trade and current account figures, Eurozone investor sentiment and US consumer credit the only real highlights in the second half of the session.

Given the influence they had last week, the performance of Chinese markets, particularly the Chinese yuan, could well dictate how the Aussie dollar performs today.

AUD/USD is set to feel the impact of a firmer USD.

With Asian currencies coming under more downward pressure, we anticipate AUD/USD will similarly depreciate this week.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 0.76.

The projected lower bound is: 0.73.

The projected closing price is: 0.75.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 88.1669. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 51.71. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 44 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 159.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed down -0.000 at 0.746. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 16% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.747 0.747 0.746 0.746 1,376

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.74 0.75 0.77
Volatility: 10 10 9
Volume: 93,656 100,129 90,005

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 3.0% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of AUD= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 15 periods.

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