Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Will Need Surge in Volume to Breakout Over .6939

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Will Need Surge in Volume to Breakout Over .6939

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Will Need Surge in Volume to Breakout Over .6939

Optimism over the U.S.-China trade deal continues to bring in enough buyers to underpin the Australian Dollar. However, the buying volume is a little light due to the holiday season, and uncertainty over whether the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will lower interest rates at its policy meeting in February.

The Aussie is being buoyed by optimism over easing trade tensions between the United States and China and signs of recovering global growth. Beijing said on Wednesday it is in close touch with Washington on a trade deal signing ceremony, a day after U.S. President Donald Trump said that the and Chinese President Xi Jinping will have a ceremony to sign the recently struck trade deal.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the last main top at .6939 will signal a resumption of the uptrend after nine sessions of sideways trading. A move through .6838 will change the main trend to down.

The main range is .7082 to .6671. Its retracement zone at .6876 to .6925 is controlling the near-term direction of the AUD/USD. The Forex pair is currently straddling the upper or Fibonacci level of this range at .6925.

The short-term range is .6939 to .6838. Its 50% level at .6888 is also a potential downside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Today is the seventh day up from the last main bottom at .6838, which puts the AUD/USD inside the window of time for a closing price reversal top. Based on this assessment, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to Tuesday’s close at .6920.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.68.

The projected upper bound is: 0.70.

The projected lower bound is: 0.69.

The projected closing price is: 0.69.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 1 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 1 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 90.2832. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 14 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 66.27. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 100 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 126.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 17 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed up 0.003 at 0.695. Volume was 47% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 6% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
0.692 0.695 0.692 0.695 29,214
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 0.69 0.68 0.69
Volatility: 6 7 7
Volume: 39,191 45,970 69,748

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX AUD= is currently 0.7% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 9 periods.

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