Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) weakens following Wentworth election result

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) weakens following Wentworth election result

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) weakens following Wentworth election result

The Australian Dollar has endured a soft start to the week after the government lost a one-seat majority in parliament and as the U.S. criticised China’s response to efforts at de-escalating the so called trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

Australia’s ruling coalition lost its majority in the House of Representatives Saturday when voters plumped for independent candidate Kerryn Phelps over the Liberal Party’s man David Sharma in the Wentworth by-election.

Wentworth has been vacant since former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull resigned after being dethroned in an August leadership challenge.

Domestic politics have had little relevance for the Australian Dollar of later, with global events guiding the currency in 2018 instead. But a looming months-long period of political inertia is hardly a positive development for the Antipodean.

“The Coalition government will need to rely on the support of independents to govern until the federal election due no later than May 2019,” says Sean Callow, a currency strategist at Westpac.

The AUD/USD rate was quoted at 0.7081 Tuesday but is down 9% for 2018, while the Pound-to-Australian-Dollar rate was 0.15% higher at 1.8357.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.72.

The projected upper bound is: 0.72.

The projected lower bound is: 0.70.

The projected closing price is: 0.71.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 27.9245. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 41.71. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 119 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -68. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed up 0.001 at 0.709. Volume was 11% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 6% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.708 0.709 0.705 0.709 116,943

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.71 0.72 0.75
Volatility: 8 10 10
Volume: 116,077 107,636 103,806

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX AUD= is currently 5.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 13 periods.

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