Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Weak Global Economic Forecasts Weighing on Aussie

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Weak Global Economic Forecasts Weighing on Aussie

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) Weak Global Economic Forecasts Weighing on Aussie

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars are trading lower on Tuesday in reaction to concerns over data showing China’s economy slowed sharply in 2018 and weakening global growth. The lack of fresh developments over U.S.-China trade relations could also be weighing on the Aussie and Kiwi. Losses are likely being limited by a drop in U.S. Treasury yields.

At 0807 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7128, down 0.0029 or -0.39% and the NZD/USD is at .6721, down 0.0008 or -0.12%.

The bleak economic forecasts are likely to continue to pressure the Aussie and the Kiwi on Tuesday especially if investors start to move money into the safe-haven U.S. Dollar. Basically, if the global economy slows especially China then the Australian and New Zealand economies should feel similar pressure. The would push any chances of a rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand further out into the future.

New Zealand Dollar traders are preparing for the release of the latest New Zealand consumer inflation data early Wednesday. The CPI is expected to come in flat. The previous quarterly report showed a 0.9% increase.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 0.72.

The projected lower bound is: 0.70.

The projected closing price is: 0.71.


A big black candle occurred. This is bearish, as prices closed significantly lower than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “high,” it may be the first sign of a top. If it occurs when prices are confronting an overhead resistance area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or price resistance level), the long black candle adds credibility to the resistance. Similarly, if the candle appears as prices break below a support area, the long black candle confirms the failure of the support area.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 1 black candles.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 17.3286. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 45.76. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 21 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -23. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed down -0.004 at 0.712. Volume was 16% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 9% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.716 0.716 0.711 0.712 96,192

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.72 0.72 0.73
Volatility: 7 10 10
Volume: 108,521 113,356 107,600

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX AUD= is currently 2.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 7 periods.

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