Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) weak employment data drove up the chances of another rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia
The Australian Dollar closed lower last week with most of the loss occurring on November 14 after the Australian 10-year government bond yield slumped to over a 1-week low after the country’s employment report for the month of October created a surprise disappointment among investors, as the jobless rate rose and the employment change slumped.
The 19,000 drop in employment in October was the largest decline in three years and well-below the Bloomberg median forecast of a rise of 15,000. Annual employment growth eased from 2.5 percent in September to 2.0 percent in October, the report added.
“Further, the unemployment rate bounced back from 5.2 percent to 5.3 percent and the only reason why it didn’t rise even more was that the participation rate fell for the second consecutive month. Our view is that the participation rate is more likely to rise in coming months adding further upward pressure on the unemployment rate,” Capital Economics further noted in the report.
The news has rekindled expectations the RBA will have to cut official rates. This drove the Australian Dollar sharply lower. Traders are expecting a rate cut in February 2020, but some may try to build a case for a December cut.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 0.69.
The projected lower bound is: 0.67.
The projected closing price is: 0.68.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 3 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 34.6387. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 45.50. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 72 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -105.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed down -0.001 at 0.681. Volume was 98% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 33% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.680 0.682 0.680 0.681 1,200
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.68 0.68 0.69
Volatility: 6 7 8
Volume: 47,430 55,852 77,987
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 1.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 21 periods.