Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) waiting for next breakdown

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) waiting for next breakdown

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) waiting for next breakdown

AUD/USD has been trading within a relatively flat range over the past two trading days, in what looks like a very similar pattern to those seen in recent weeks.

On prior occasions these sideways consolidation patterns provide a precursor to another downside sell-off. Thus, the expectation is that we will soon see another sell-off, with an hourly close below $0.7032 providing confirmation that the breakout is occurring. Until then, there is a chance we will rebound from here to continue the consolidation.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.72.

The projected upper bound is: 0.72.

The projected lower bound is: 0.69.

The projected closing price is: 0.70.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 3 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 3 black candles.

An engulfing bearish line occurred (where a black candle’s real body completely contains the previous white candle’s real body). The engulfing bearish pattern is bearish during an uptrend. It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bulls to the bears.

If the engulfing bearish pattern occurs during a downtrend (which appears to be the case with FOREX AUD=), it may be a last engulfing bottom which indicates a bullish reversal. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes above the bottom the current (black) candle’s real body.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 15.2883. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 33.95. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -99. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 15 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed down -0.003 at 0.703. Volume was 11% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 55% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.707 0.708 0.701 0.703 125,938

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.71 0.72 0.74
Volatility: 10 11 10
Volume: 106,364 119,204 107,123

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 4.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of AUD= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 12 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period low while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bullish divergence.

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