Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) volatility expected
Currency volatility expected in the Australian Dollar is at extremes ahead of the upcoming interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The RBA is due to release its latest monetary policy update on Tuesday, February 04 at 3:30 GMT and has correspondingly pushed Australian Dollar overnight implied volatility readings to multi-month highs.
Specifically, AUD/USD overnight implied volatility of 11.8% ranks in the top 97th percentile of measurements taken over the last 12-months and is its highest reading since August 14.
Technical Indicators
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.68.
The projected upper bound is: 0.68.
The projected lower bound is: 0.66.
The projected closing price is: 0.67.
Candlesticks
During the past 10 bars, there have been 2 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 20 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 6 black candles.
A doji star occurred (where a doji gaps above or below the previous candle). This often signals a reversal with confirmation occurring on the next bar.
Momentum Indicators
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
Stochastic Oscillator
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 10.6173. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 20.96. This is where it usually bottoms. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 22 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -120.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.
MACD
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 19 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed down -0.000 at 0.669. Volume was 17% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 50% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.669 0.671 0.668 0.669 57,907
Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.68 0.69 0.69
Volatility: 6 7 7
Volume: 54,967 47,261 63,932
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
Summary
FOREX AUD= is currently 2.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of AUD= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 14 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that AUD= is currently in an oversold condition.
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