Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) very sensitive to the Chinese economic situation
The Australian dollar has fallen a bit during the trading session on Thursday, as we continue to see the 0.70 level as an area of interest. Beyond that, there is a significant amount of support extending all the way down to the 0.68 level.
This is a market that has so much support that I am a bit hesitant to sell the Aussie dollar, but obviously there’s not much going on to lift it right now. We need good news out of the US/China trade relations, because if we do get that, then the Aussie dollar will be one of the first places that people put money to. Because of this, the market looks very likely to be a one-way trade, in other words, we could be looking at a situation where you can only buy the Australian dollar on US dollar weakness.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.71.
The projected upper bound is: 0.71.
The projected lower bound is: 0.69.
The projected closing price is: 0.70.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 1 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 1 white candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 32.1972. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 37.68. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 99 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -85. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 13 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed up 0.000 at 0.699. Volume was 97% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 42% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.699 0.699 0.698 0.699 2,522
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.70 0.71 0.72
Volatility: 6 7 10
Volume: 79,663 93,061 106,065
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 2.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 11 periods.
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