Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) upside unlikely to last
AUD/USD has been gaining ground over the past week, with a rising wedge coming into play.
That is a bearish pattern, pointing towards a possible breakdown before long. Given the wider downtrend in play, such a breakdown would be consistent with the primary long-term trend. Thus, watch for a break below the first swing low to signal an impending sell-off. That level is currently $0.7111. Until that happens, we could continue to drift higher.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.73.
The projected upper bound is: 0.72.
The projected lower bound is: 0.70.
The projected closing price is: 0.71.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 1 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 1 black candles.
A doji star occurred (where a doji gaps above or below the previous candle). This often signals a reversal with confirmation occurring on the next bar.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 60.4165. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 42.80. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 116 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -16. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed down -0.000 at 0.711. Volume was 100% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 18% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.711 0.711 0.710 0.711 460
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.71 0.72 0.75
Volatility: 8 11 10
Volume: 100,919 105,347 102,747
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 5.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 10 periods.
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