Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) unchanged despite weaker-than-expected China Q1 GDP

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) unchanged despite weaker-than-expected China Q1 GDP

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) unchanged despite weaker-than-expected China Q1 GDP

Aussie remained bid despite weaker-than-expected China Q1 GDP. Renewed hopes for coronavirus treatment support the antipodeans. 

STAT news report that Gilead Sciences’ experimental drug ‘Remdesivir’ is seeing rapid recoveries in fever and respiratory symptoms associated with coronavirus. 

On the data front, China registers first GDP contraction since 1992. Retail sales and industrial production for March also showed contraction. 

Data released earlier on Friday showed that Q1 GDP contracted 6.8% in annualized terms versus expectations for a 6.5% decline.

Retail Sales tanked 15.8% y/y in March compared to expectations for a 10% decline. Industrial Production also contracted by 1.1% but bettered estimates of a 7.3% drop. 

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 0.66.

The projected lower bound is: 0.61.

The projected closing price is: 0.63.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 9 white candles and 1 black candles for a net of 8 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 45.8535. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 56.40. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 18 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 68. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 15 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed up 0.002 at 0.635. Volume was 38% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 52% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.632 0.638 0.632 0.635 45,693
Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.63 0.64 0.67
Volatility: 19 23 13
Volume: 102,272 94,620 66,039

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX AUD= is currently 5.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 6 periods.

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