Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) uncertainty over the outlook for international trade

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) uncertainty over the outlook for international trade

Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) uncertainty over the outlook for international trade

The Australian Dollar reversed earlier losses during noon trading Wednesday and marched higher ahead of the June employment report, which traders will watch closely for clues about the condition of Australia’s labour market.

In late-morning trades, the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index is adding 49.30 points or 0.79 percent to 6,252.90, off a high of 6,256.80. The broader All Ordinaries Index is up 48.50 points or 0.77 percent to 6,336.90.

In the mining space, BHP Billiton is rising more than 3 percent, Rio Tinto is advancing almost 1 percent and Fortescue Metals is higher by 0.7 percent despite lower copper, aluminium and nickel prices.

Consensus suggests markets are looking for the Australian economy to have created 16,700 new jobs during June, up from the 12,000 recorded back in May. This is expected to leave the unemployment rate steady at 5.4% for the recent month, despite the 20 basis point fall seen in May having been attributed to changes in participation.

Australian jobs growth has disappointed so far in 2018. After a 12 month period of jobs gains that were often in excess of 40,000 per month, new job creation averaged little more than 14,000 during the first five months of the year.

The Australian Dollar still faces pressure from the ongoing trade wars stemming from the US and China. The latest minutes from the last Reserve Bank of Australia meeting have highlighted a growing concern over the latest tariffs which the US has imposed on China.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 0.75.

The projected lower bound is: 0.73.

The projected closing price is: 0.74.


During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 3 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 5 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 46.2541. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 45.67. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 51 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -17. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX AUD= closed down -0.000 at 0.740. Volume was 97% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 46% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
0.740 0.740 0.739 0.740 2,696

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.74 0.75 0.77
Volatility: 10 10 9
Volume: 91,394 101,129 91,246

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX AUD= is currently 3.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AUD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 22 periods.

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