Australian Dollar: USD/AUD (AUD=X) trying to fall towards the 0.67 handle
The Australian dollar has bounced a bit during trading on Thursday after initially trying to fall towards the 0.67 handle. At this point, the market looks likely to trying to break to the upside in more of a “risk on” type of move, especially if the news about the coronavirus and China starts to get a little bit better, which it slowly is trying to do so. Numbers were higher when it comes to infections, but it’s because they have improved the reporting mechanism so at the end of the day nothing has changed as far as the amount of people infected, it’s just that the reporting methods have.
The idea is that the Australian dollar will have a significant amount of value built into it, assuming that the China situation turns around. Keep in mind that the Australian dollar is highly sensitive to supplying China with its raw materials necessary to continue construction, and of course the massive export machine that China has become.
Currently, I see the 0.67 level as a bit of a center for the potential basing of the Aussie dollar, but it’s going to be a very difficult and long-term affair at this point. The market has a significant amount of support underneath down to the 0.63 level, as the range was the trading area that we had seen during the financial crisis, which of course means that the Australian dollar is essentially priced to see Armageddon. In other words, later this year I suspect that the Australian dollar will be one of the best values out there. To the upside, we may make a move towards the 50 day EMA initially if we can clear the 0.6775 handle.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 0.68.
The projected upper bound is: 0.68.
The projected lower bound is: 0.66.
The projected closing price is: 0.67.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 3 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 21 white candles and 25 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.
A doji star occurred (where a doji gaps above or below the previous candle). This often signals a reversal with confirmation occurring on the next bar.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 68.9188. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 39.25. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -13. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX AUD= closed down -0.000 at 0.672. Volume was 98% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 21% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
0.672 0.672 0.671 0.672 745
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 0.67 0.68 0.69
Volatility: 8 8 7
Volume: 50,118 48,086 61,958
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX AUD= is currently 2.0% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of AUD= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AUD= and have had this outlook for the last 23 periods.